F1 News: How soon will Adrian Newey win the world championship at his new team?

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How soon will Newey win the F1 title at his new team?

What does F1 history tell of Adrian Newey finding a title-winning formula when he moves team?

Jim Kimberley

Tuesday 30 April 2024 18:57

In a year that Formula 1 has seen one of its three active world champions sign for a rival, another extend his contract, and the third's future in doubt amid his team's infighting, it's the possible departure of an aerodynamicist that might have the longest-lasting ramifications.

Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso, and even the unstoppable Max Verstappen are some of motorsport's best, but Red Bull's Adrian Newey has more championships than the three drivers' combined efforts.

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It's no wonder, then, that any switch in allegiance could also see a change in constructor dominance and have Red Bull fall down the order.

Ferrari, Mercedes, and Aston Martin are the most likely suitors for the 65-year-old's signature, but how soon might the ones to lure Newey hope to see results?

We looked through the history books to see if the past might tell us how F1's future may look.

Williams (time until Newey's first title: two seasons)

Newey rose to F1 prominence at Williams in 1991 after a brief tenure at the March team when Williams and McLaren were still powerhouses battling for world constructors' championships.

One of the two teams had taken every title in the sport since 1984, but McLaren were on a three-season winning streak.

Despite Newey and technical director Patrick Head seeing the FW14 improve as 1991 progressed, Ayrton Senna's early-year supremacy helped McLaren take their fourth consecutive title in Newey's first season at Williams.

1991 was a season of two halves, with Nigel Mansell and Riccardo Patrese winning seven of the final 11 races, while McLaren only managed four victories with Senna and Gerhard Berger.

That turning of the tide morphed into a full-scale tidal wave of triumph for the blossoming Newey-Head partnership by 1992, and their FW14B took Mansell to his long-awaited championship, with Williams re-taking the constructors' crown.

Newey's designs and the car's advanced technology proved so potent that the team never ran the original FW15 they intended to supersede the FW14B in 1992.

Williams enjoyed more Newey-inspired success until he left, and, worryingly for Red Bull, the team have not won a championship since.

McLaren (time until Newey's first title: one season)

Newey had to sit out most of the 1997 season on gardening leave after deciding to leave Williams in favour of McLaren.

The Woking-based team had not found title glory since 1991, but Newey's arrival coincided with a regulation change that affected the car's size and, therefore, aerodynamic capabilities.

Mika Hakkinen and David Coulthard lapped every other car in the season-opening Australian Grand Prix to show how well Newey and McLaren had adapted to the rule change.

They would not have this level of control all season long. Yet the victories continued throughout the year as Hakkinen and Ferrari's Michael Schumacher thrilled fans with a championship-long fight that fell in McLaren's favour.

As with Williams, McLaren have not won any titles since Newey left, although they have come much closer than their long-time British rivals.

Should Newey leave Red Bull for another team in 2026, when the new regulations come into force, the 1998 season will be what all other constructors will worry that he might repeat.

Red Bull (time until Newey's first title: five seasons)

Ironically, Red Bull is where Newey took the longest to find his championship-winning ways.

However, the team were also far newer to F1 than his previous employers, having only formed one year earlier.

Newey joined Red Bull from McLaren in 2006, meaning he would have no say in the fundamentals of the RB2, but his hands were full as Toro Rosso, now RB, would also benefit from Newey's handiwork for 2007 (and beyond).

The RB3 and STR2, essentially the same chassis, were not world-beating machines, but having four cars providing aerodynamic data didn't hurt. Red Bull slowly started picking up more points and podiums over subsequent seasons and might have clinched their first title in 2009 if not for the stranger-than-fiction start to life Brawn GP had.

The RB5 of '09 became a regular point-scoring machine in Sebastian Vettel's and Mark Webber's hands, and the two took six wins, Red Bull's first, that season.

2010 had a Newey-designed car be a top-of-the-class machine again as the RB6 stormed to 15 of 19 possible pole positions and nine victories en route to both championships.

It might have taken longer than at Williams or McLaren, but Newey had done it again, this time with a team that didn't even exist a decade earlier.

As F1 has recently rebuffed the idea of new entries, any future home for Newey would be an established team.

History has shown that Newey joining a team that knows how to win coinciding with a regulation change can have devastating results.

We might not know who will become F1 winners by appointing Newey, but Red Bull look set to become losers.

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