F1 Analysis: How Kimi Antonelli saved Red Bull as Max Verstappen signs blockbuster deal

Max Verstappen, Kimi Antonelli, Red Bull, Mercedes, Bahrain, 2026 — Photo: © IMAGO

F1 Opinion

How Kimi Antonelli saved Red Bull as Max Verstappen signs blockbuster F1 deal

Speculation over Verstappen's future has finally been put to bed

Simmey Hannifin Donaldson F1 Editor

Motorsport journalist covering F1 since 2024

Friday 21 August 2026 08:14 Updated: 08:43

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Red Bull can breathe a collective sigh of relief this morning after four-time world champion and star man Max Verstappen put pen to paper on a new, blockbuster deal.

Having been linked with joining one of their rivals - namely McLaren and Mercedes - or retiring from the sport altogether, Verstappen is now tied down at Red Bull through the 2030 season.

And, while Red Bull will be very grateful that Verstappen has decided to stick around, they now owe a deal of gratitude to another driver on the grid, one Kimi Antonelli.

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Mercedes were heavily linked to Max Verstappen

We don't have to cast our minds back too long to get to a time when Verstappen was being heavily linked with a switch to Mercedes.

Having lost Lewis Hamilton ahead of the 2025 season, Mercedes entered 2025 with Antonelli and George Russell both on one-year deals, handing them great flexibility when it came to determining their drivers for 2026 and beyond.

It feels like an age ago now given his exploits this season, but Antonelli's rookie struggles only added fuel to the fire that the team might look to add Verstappen to their ranks, with Toto Wolff having missed out on signing him way back in 2014.

However, one crucial factor was not in play in 2025. Max Verstappen's exit clause.

Toto Wolff has long been a Max Verstappen admirer / Credit: Imago

While his 2026 break clause came into effect during the summer break because he was outside of the top two in the drivers' standings, that exit clause did not reportedly become active in 2025 due to Verstappen meeting his performance targets at the time, which only required him to be third in the standings.

Over that 2025 summer, Wolff had even confirmed Mercedes were exploring what Verstappen was set to do in the future, all while Russell and Antonelli's futures remained up in the air.

Crucially, however, with the clause not active, the option to sign Verstappen simply wasn't there.

We'll never know what Mercedes would have done if it was, but it isn't too much of a stretch to think that if the four-time world champion was available, Wolff would have acted swiftly, particularly with question marks hanging over Antonelli at the time.

Kimi Antonelli saved Red Bull; Mercedes don't need Verstappen

Fast forward to 2026, and Verstappen's clause did become active, but things had drastically changed at Mercedes.

Antonelli's ascent from struggling rookie to potentially the youngest champion the sport has ever seen has been remarkable.

The 19-year-old Italian's six grands prix victories so far this year have proved to Wolff and company that he is very much capable of competing for and winning a championship in F1, even despite his young age. Any question marks over his talent and mentality after a tough rookie season have been firmly put to bed.

In that sense, Kimi Antonelli might have saved Red Bull.

Kimi Antonelli has been the start of F1 in 2026 / Credit: Imago

Had the young Italian not had such a tremendous turnaround in form this season, Wolff surely would have acted the second that Verstappen's break clause became active in 2026.

As much as he likes his current drivers, the Austrian is a serial winner, and would have surely taken the opportunity to tie up the sport's best driver if the same question marks still hung over the young Italian this season.

But they don't - while Russell has had his struggles this year, Mercedes have nurtured Antonelli perfectly and he has emerged as a real star of the sport. The bad news for his rivals, is that he will likely continue to get even better.

Of course, you could argue that Wolff could have looked to put Verstappen alongside Antonelli and oust Russell. However, given the way that Verstappen has destroyed some of his team-mates at Red Bull over the years, that would not have been a wise move and certainly would have risked destabilising Antonelli's progression.

Antonelli's ascent essentially decided that there was no room at the inn for Verstappen at Mercedes, no requirement to land a driver they knew was capable of winning championships. Because they now already have one.

Former F1 team principal Guenther Steiner summed it up perfectly in a recent appearance on the Up to Speed podcast, explaining: "Mercedes, obviously, I think they found now the next Max Verstappen, so maybe they don’t need the real Max Verstappen."

Verstappen himself has now admitted that he was closer to retirement than joining another team such as Mercedes, and Antonelli's rise surely played a role in that.

Ultimately, Antonelli’s emergence has given Mercedes little reason to disrupt what is already looking like a winning formula this season, while at the same time giving Red Bull the breathing room it needed to secure Verstappen's signature again.

Antonelli has established himself as a genuine F1 title contender in his second season in the sport, and that has meant that the biggest threat to Verstappen's Red Bull future inadvertently disappeared.

Written by

Simmey Hannifin Donaldson - F1 Editor

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F1 Red Bull Max Verstappen Mercedes Kimi Antonelli