F1 Silly Season 2026: Max Verstappen, Mercedes and every driver move

max verstappen, red bull, mclaren, aston martin, mercedes, graphic — Photo: © IMAGO

F1 Silly Season

F1 Silly Season: Max Verstappen, Mercedes and every driver move

Max's move is 2026's big trigger

Dan Ripley Global Editor

Professional F1 journalist and analyst

Thursday 25 June 2026 17:30 Updated: 17:53

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If you are an old head in F1 you will be fully aware of what 'silly season' is, but if you are new around here strap in for one of the craziest things about the sport which doesn't take place on a track.

Effectively, the unofficial silly season is the transfer market you see in football - but for drivers. But while in the Premier League there are 500 places up for grabs, in F1 there are just 22 and this means many drivers are dependent on each other for who goes where.

It tends to start around early May once the new season is under way and teams start to understand where they sit in the pecking order, and typically continues until the summer break or shortly after.

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This year's edition is particularly manic with many drivers out of contract at the end of the season, and everything seems to rest on where Max Verstappen ends up for 2027.

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Max Verstappen key to 2026 F1 silly season

Max Verstappen should not even be a factor in this year's silly season. He has a contract at Red Bull until 2028 - which in theory should make him untouchable.

However, Red Bull's dire season means Verstappen has an exit clause. This being that if he is not in the top two in the world championship by the summer break, he can leave at the end of this year.

This is looking incredibly likely with Verstappen well out of contention for the world title with just one podium all season. Put simply, this clause will become active after the Hungarian Grand Prix on July 26.

There won't be a shortage of potential suitors for the four-time world champion heading into next season and because of this, many other drivers won't be able to finalise their 2027 plans until Verstappen has. Max is the first domino to fall, and he could trigger a wave of other driver switches.

Much depends on this weekend's Austrian Grand Prix, where Red Bull will bring their biggest package of upgrades in years. A last, desperate bid to keep their star asset.

Who will Max Verstappen drive for in 2027?

Providing Verstappen does decide to trigger his exit clause in the summer, two realistic options stand out. Mercedes and team boss Toto Wolff have been keen on the Dutchman for years and Verstappen to Mercedes was a big talking point during the summer of 2025 when Red Bull also looked weak before a strong second half to the season.

Mercedes right now are the best team on track as far as Verstappen's options go, but not far behind are McLaren - who would also be keen on trying to recruit Verstappen, especially as they have already signed his current race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase for 2028.

An outside bet would be on Verstappen to join Adrian Newey's Aston Martin project. Verstappen could be swayed by their Honda engine which powered him to four world championships, but a huge downside is the team is a mess right now and unless their summer upgrades work, then Verstappen would likely rather stay at Red Bull.

If Verstappen joined Mercedes, it would likely force a George Russell exit. At McLaren he could swap seats with Oscar Piastri, while the outside chance of moving to Aston Martin would likely end Fernando Alonso's four-season stint with the team and potentially his 25-year F1 career.

Max Verstappen has a decision to make on his Red Bull future

How each F1 team looks in 2026 silly season

McLaren

Lando Norris (Contract expiry: 2027)

Even with the threat of Max Verstappen looming, Lando Norris looks safe enough at McLaren. He has been in the team's system for nearly a decade, is the reigning world champion and maintains a slight edge on team-mate Oscar Piastri. It would be a huge shock should the British driver not still be at Woking next season.

Oscar Piastri (2028)

Has a year longer on his deal than Norris, but may still find himself the odd man out should McLaren decide to pursue Verstappen. The most likely destination if Piastri leaves McLaren would be Red Bull in a simple swap, something that could be helped by his manager Mark Webber, who drove for the team from 2007 to 2013.

Mercedes

George Russell (2027)

Now technically Russell does have a contract until 2027, but it appears there is flexibility for either side to have a bit of freedom on their options for next year. Russell is in a predicament heading into the summer break as he is the weaker of the Mercedes drivers, having been off the pace of team-mate Kimi Antonelli for much of the season so far. Should Verstappen take his place then a move to Alpine could keep him in the Mercedes family.

Kimi Antonelli (2026)

The world championship leader's place at Mercedes has been strengthened thanks to an amazing start to the season which has seen him win five races in a row to lead the world championship. He is one of the prize jewels on the grid right now, but Mercedes have one of the best cars so the expiring contract at the end of the year won't be too much of an issue. The obvious Italian lure of Ferrari is a threat at some point, but not for 2027.

Red Bull

Max Verstappen (2028)

The exit clause in the Dutchman's contract makes the 2028 all but meaningless. If Red Bull can't convince him that they can get back to winning ways, Verstappen will be off. Where to? Mercedes are the favourites right now with McLaren a close second. Outside of these teams and a closed door at Ferrari, anything else is a downgrade on Red Bull.

Isack Hadjar (2026)

Given how volatile the second Red Bull seat has been in the last two years, chewing up and spitting out Sergio Perez, Liam Lawson and Tuki Tsunoda, only a one-year contract for Hadjar wasn't much of a surprise. However, the Frenchman has performed well in poor machinery alongside Verstappen and for once the driver uncertainty at Red Bull is on the other side of the garage.

Ferrari

Lewis Hamilton (2027)

Amazing that early in the season Hamilton was having to talk about people trying to force him to retire. Now he is the chief challenger in the F1 title fight. With a deal until, at least, the end of 2027 his Ferrari seat is as safe as it has ever been.

Lewis Hamilton is enjoying an excellent season challenging Kimi Antonelli for the title

Charles Leclerc (2030)

By contrast, Leclerc has never had it so bad at Ferrari. Yet, the Monegasque driver has only just penned a long-term deal at Ferrari until at least 2030 - the longest on the entire grid. Ferrari’s 2027 lineup suddenly looks about the most locked in of all the teams.

Williams

Alex Albon (2026)

Albon signed a multi-year deal in 2024 and seems to have found his groove at Williams since joining them in 2022. Team boss James Vowles is hoping the Thai-British driver continues beyond this season and right now that looks like the most probable outcome.

Carlos Sainz (2026)

Sainz has options to extend his two-year Williams stay but reports have suggested he is unsettled by the team's inability to become a major force again. The Spaniard will consider staying at the team but Audi are interested and could offer a higher ceiling of performance.

Racing Bulls

Liam Lawson (2026)

Having been ditched by Red Bull after just two races in 2025, Lawson is no longer flavour of the month at the team. He has enjoyed a good start to 2026 in outscoring rookie team-mate Arvid Lindblad, but he is only contracted until the end of the season. Racing Bulls have denied reports linking Nikola Tsolov to replace him, but the Red Bull family are known for their ruthless decisions on drivers.

Arvid Lindblad (2026)

Lindblad has settled in well to his first season in F1 and despite having only a one-year deal has already probably shown Red Bull enough to merit a second season at the junior team.

Aston Martin

Fernando Alonso (2026)

The second big story of silly season is whether Alonso continues in F1 beyond 2027. Early indications suggest he will, and while it looks likely to be with Aston Martin in a determination to strike it rich with a Newey car, Alpine are also waiting in the wings.

Fernando Alonso will weigh up if he wants to continue in F1

Lance Stroll (2026)

Stroll is also out of contract at the end of the year but it would be a major shock if Lawrence Stroll decided to ditch his son, who has driven for the team since its inception in 2021.

Haas

Ollie Bearman (2026)

Ferrari have one eye on the impressive Bearman as part of their young driver programme, but with no room in the Maranello inn he is likely to continue at Haas for 2027.

Esteban Ocon (2026)

Ocon is one of the drivers facing the most pressure to retain a seat in 2027. He is being soundly beaten by Bearman and team boss Ayao Komatsu even had to shut down rumours they had fallen out, with rumours linking the likes of Yuki Tsunoda to an F1 return.

Audi

Nico Hulkenberg (2027)

Audi have had a pretty ordinary start to life in F1 but there is little suggestion they are looking for new names heading into 2027 as both drivers are on multi-year deals. Sainz has been linked to the project and if that is the case, the ageing Hulkenberg would be at the most risk of losing his seat.

Gabriel Bortoleto and Nico Hulkenberg have been a solid pairing for Audi

Gabriel Bortoleto (2027)

Bortoleto is still learning his trade at Audi and he has so far impressed during his second season in F1. The Brazilian may have a contract for next year already but he is at the right team at the right time and could reap the rewards of major Audi progress in the next few seasons.

Alpine

Pierre Gasly (2028)

Gasly looks in it for the long haul at Alpine, where he has settled nicely since joining in 2023 after leaving the Red Bull programme. A Monaco podium this year has boosted his reputation again so if there is any driver having to make way at Alpine, it isn’t him.

Franco Colapinto (2026)

After a horrific and pointless first season, Colapinto has improved slightly in 2026. However will it be enough to convince team boss Flavio Briatore to stick with him over the romance of (another) Alonso return. Or if Russell is forced out at Mercedes.

Cadillac

Sergio Perez (2027)

It’s difficult to gauge how good of a job Perez is doing when Cadillac’s potential right now is being no better than second slowest. One thing for sure, he is getting the better of his team-mate and that means he is looking good to see out his multi-year deal with the team.

Valtteri Bottas (2027)

Bottas has a similar deal to Perez but has been off the pace so far, meaning his future has been in doubt not just for 2027 but for the rest of the season too. However, there are no obvious replacements mid-season and it is a suggestion Cadillac have ‘strongly’ refuted. The big takeaway though is that Perez is looking a lot more comfortable at the team than Bottas.

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Written by

Dan Ripley - Global Editor

I've been a massive F1 fan since the mid 1990s and continue to study the history of the sport long before that. As an experienced motor sport reporter covering F1, MotoGP and the LeMans 24 Hour race, being part of GPFans has allowed me to work with a diverse team with all sorts of different backgrounds in watching the sport and given me a greater appreciation of F1.

View full biography

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