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Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari, Montreal, Canada, 2026 — Photo: © IMAGO
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Lewis Hamilton saw his odds of a first F1 victory in just under two years fade on Saturday as he qualified only third for the Monaco Grand Prix.

The 41-year-old seven-time world champion came into race weekend in the principality on the crest of a wave after his best result yet since moving to Ferrari - second place last time out in Canada.

Things also looked good on Friday as Hamilton topped the timesheets in Free Practice 2, but on Saturday he was unable to repeat the trick.

Hamilton - watched for the first time in person by girlfriend Kim Kardashian - could qualify only third on the grid and is now 13/2 third favourite to win for the first time since Belgium back in July 2024.

Brilliant Italian teenager Kimi Antonelli is the red-hot favourite to claim victory on Sunday after roaring to pole for Mercedes. The championship leader is now 1/2 to win a race which has been claimed 33 times by the driver in pole position, and he could also become the youngest ever winner in Monaco.

Four-time world champion Max Verstappen will start on the front row just behind Antonelli after a brilliant Qualifying performance saw him claim P2 for Red Bull. He is 5/2 to win on Sunday.

Hamilton's team-mate Charles Leclerc had been favourite to claim pole on Saturday, but could only manage fourth on the grid. The hometown Monegasque hero is a 12/1 shot to claim an unlikely victory.

Leclerc had been favourite to claim pole in his home race.
Leclerc had been favourite to claim pole in his home race.

It was another tough day at the office for pre-season championship favourite George Russell. The Mercedes star won the season opener in Australia but now trails Antonelli by 43 points after the Italian grabbed victories in the next four races.

Russell is a distant 66/1 to win on Sunday after qualifying only sixth.

READ MORE: Where F1 drivers live, and why so many choose Monaco?

Latest odds to win the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix

Driver Odds Win Probability
Kimi Antonelli1/266.67%
Max Verstappen5/228.57%
Lewis Hamilton13/213.33%
Charles Leclerc12/17.69%
George Russell66/11.49%
Isack Hadjar125/10.79%
Lando Norris125/10.79%
Oscar Piastri125/10.79%
Pierre Gasly500/10.20%
Liam Lawson500/10.20%

LEWIS HAMILTON: Career record with every pole, win and title

Graham Shaw
Written by
Graham Shaw - Consultant Editor
Digital sports leader with 30 years of senior level experience running global brands. Built sportinglife.com to be a behemoth in the UK as well as being in charge of the Planet Sport network of sites including planetf1.com, football365.com, teamtalk.com and planetrugby.com. Then grew goal.com to be the world's biggest soccer website in 18 languages and 37 territories. Was GM of Portals for Perform Group (now DAZN) with overall responsibility for sportingnews.com, spox.de and voetbalzone.nl.
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