F1 Odds 2026: Lewis Hamilton is cooked but who is favourite for the title?

Lewis Hamilton in a Ferrari race suit in the Ferrari garage — Photo: © IMAGO

F1 Odds

F1 Odds 2026: Lewis Hamilton is cooked but who is favourite for the title?

The odds make pretty grim reading for Hamilton and Ferrari fans.

Graham Shaw Consultant Editor

Digital sports specialist running global brands for 30 years

Thursday 15 January 2026 09:57 Updated: 10:03

If you are a Ferrari fan hoping that Year 2 of the Lewis Hamilton era will be a massive turnaround at Maranello, maybe do not look at the F1 odds right now.

We are just a few short weeks away from the start of the new season (the Australian Grand Prix on March 8 in Melbourne) as the new regulations kick in for 2026.

For the first time in what feels like forever there is an element of doubt and mystique about who might be the front runners heading into the new season. We are heading into the unknown.

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But two things remain the same according to the oddsmakers - Max Verstappen will again challenge for a title, and Hamilton has virtually no chance of claiming title number 8.

Let’s look at the odds and win percentage chances for all of the drivers and teams as we head towards testing and then the real thing in Melbourne.

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F1 Odds - Drivers’ Championship 2026

The current odds to become world champion in 2026 look like this - Verstappen and Mercedes star George Russell head the market at 11/4 with reigning champ Lando Norris and his McLaren team-mate following up.

Of the two ‘golden oldies’, Fernando Alonso has a way better shot in his Aston Martin than does Hamilton in his Ferrari. Grim reading for Hamilton fans with Lewis having an implied win probability of just 2.9%.

Oh, and if you are expecting much out of returning stars Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas at Cadillac, better recalibrate those thoughts just a little.

Driver	Odds	Win Probability
Max Verstappen	11/4	26.7%
George Russell	11/4	26.7%
Lando Norris	9/2	18.2%
Oscar Piastri	15/2	11.8%
Fernando Alonso	15/2	11.8%
Kimi Antonelli	10/1	9.1%
Charles Leclerc	20/1	4.8%
Lewis Hamilton	33/1	2.9%
Carlos Sainz	66/1	1.5%
Isack Hadjar	100/1	1%
Alex Albon	100/1	1%
Pierre Gasly	150/1	0.7%
Nico Hulkenberg	150/1	0.7%
Gabriel Bortoleto	150/1	0.7%
Ollie Bearman	200/1	0.5%
Liam Lawson	250/1	0.4%
Esteban Ocon	250/1	0.4%
Arvid Lindblad	250/1	0.4%
Valtteri Bottas	500/1	0.2%
Franco Colapinto	500/1	0.2%
Sergio Perez	500/1	0.2%

Constructors’ Championship 2026

Mercedes head the odds here with the rumours suggesting they will adapt as well as any team to those new regulations. Just ahead of current kings McLaren.

The gulf between Max Verstappen and his Red Bull team-mate (every single season) is perfectly illustrated by the fact the Milton Keynes outfit is only 12/1 to claim the title in 2026.

Ferrari is slightly stronger in this market - it is all about the sum of the parts and even if they are not winning races, Hamilton and Charles Leclerc are expected to at least score points.

Team	Odds	Win Probability
Mercedes	5/4	44.4%
McLaren	11/8	42.1%
Ferrari	9/1	10%
Red Bull	12/1	7.7%
Aston Martin	12/1	7.7%
Audi	28/1	3.4%
Williams	50/1	2%
Alpine	66/1	1.5%
Racing Bulls	200/1	0.5%
Haas	200/1	0.5%
Cadillac	200/1	0.5%

F1 Schedule for 2026

There are a few key dates for your calendars ahead of the season even starting.

We have all those team launches incoming (starting with Red Bull later today), plus testing in Barcelona later this month (January 26-30, behind closed doors). Then in Bahrain we get two tranches of testing in February (11-13 and 18-20).

Then the real thing gets under way at Albert Park in Melbourne, with practice for the 2026 Australian Grand Prix starting on Friday March 6.

Written by

Graham Shaw - Consultant Editor

Digital sports leader with 30 years of senior level experience running global brands. Built sportinglife.com to be a behemoth in the UK as well as being in charge of the Planet Sport network of sites including planetf1.com, football365.com, teamtalk.com and planetrugby.com. Then grew goal.com to be the world's biggest soccer website in 18 languages and 37 territories. Was GM of Portals for Perform Group (now DAZN) with overall responsibility for sportingnews.com, spox.de and voetbalzone.nl.

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F1 Max Verstappen Lewis Hamilton George Russell