Ferrari have given Lewis Hamilton's boss their backing and that's bad news for him

There's not a bookmaker out there who'll offer you odds on 'next F1 team principal fired' as they do for many other sports (and yes, we looked), but it's a fair assumption that Fred Vasseur would be the odds-on favourite right now if the market existed.

There are certain portents which signal the changing of the guard at Ferrari, which interested observers have learned to recognise.

The first is simple, and obvious. The team not winning doesn't sound the death knell by itself, but the team not winning after showing some promise and getting hopes up is basically a big, flashing 'GAME OVER' sign.

Vasseur survived that with some grumblings last year, when the team turned their second-half performance in 2024 - when they were the best team on the grid, above even McLaren and Red Bull - into a winless 2025.

What saved the 58-year-old Frenchman there was being the man overseeing the transition to the 2026 regulation changes, and the idea that changing horses mid-race would be unwise.

That won't work twice.

F1 HEADLINES: Christian Horner in Ferrari U-turn as Lewis Hamilton reveals fight with bosses

History suggests Vasseur will be gone in months

Portent number two is a little more counterintuitive, but no less notable. If the team publicly insists that they're backing their man and have full confidence in him, history suggests it is probably time for him to start looking at real estate outside of Italy.

There's some nuance to this one. If the team is quietly briefing that you're not going anywhere, and you see a lot of 'sources close to the matter say...' without any official word, things are okay. If John Elkann comes out and says it, there may still be a few months left to play out the string, and maybe turn things around.

If you're a Ferrari team principal and the job of defending you is delegated to the communications department, though? Maybe time to start packing a suitcase.

Ferrari's latest vote of confidence was given on a short-notice media call, by the team's chief communication officer Maria Conti. Elkann wasn't on the call. It has very definite shades of the short team statement dismissing rumours that Mattia Binotto's job was in danger, two weeks before he left at the end of 2022.

Four is the magic number at Ferrari

Third portent? Everyone in the Italian media is either predicting Vasseur's demise or begging for it. If a Ferrari team principal doesn't have the Italian media in his corner, HR should surreptitiously start sending a big card around the office for everyone to sign. It's good to be prepared.

Fourth? The number four, actually. Since Sergio Marchionne cleaned house in 2014, with Marco Mattiacci as his blunt object, the Scuderia have been on a four-year cycle of new team principals.

Maurizio Arrivabene got his four years to try to bring glory back to Maranello, and failed. Binotto, likewise. Now Vasseur is approaching the end of his fourth year, and the walls are once again closing in.

Fred Vassuer is losing friends at Ferrari

Ultimately, this is all just supplementary evidence to the basic truth that everyone in F1 can see with their own two eyes. Vasseur appears to have lost the media, lost the narrative, and lost the fans - if he ever truly had them.

If Ferrari's hastily assembled media call was intended to quell the speculation about their team principal's future, it didn't work in the slightest. It's just provided another data point for fans and the media to talk about.

Speculation about Vasseur's replacement has already started, turbocharged by Christian Horner desperately throwing his hat into any available ring as a landscape of burned bridges spreads out ahead of him – and we're maybe two bad races from that overtaking 'when will Vasseur be fired/allowed to resign?' as the main topic of conversation.

All because Ferrari couldn't build an engine to match Mercedes or Red Bull.

READ MORE: Christian Horner 'embarrassing' as F1 star blasts former Red Bull boss - 'It's simply a disgrace'

Written by

Chris Deeley - Editor

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