Max Verstappen and Lando Norris have given F1 a huge problem for years to come

Now, let's be clear the best driver in the world and the current world champion signing new deals until 2030 is excellent for F1.

However, every action has a reaction and when you look at the F1 driver market over the next few seasons, there appears to be very little room for movement at the top teams.

Let's play this out. Lando Norris has just signed a new deal until 2030 for McLaren. Max Verstappen has done a similar thing with Red Bull. That's both teams having their No.1 drivers (sorry Oscar Piastri, but the standings don't lie) until the end of the decade.

Step over to Ferrari, and Charles Leclerc is enjoying the best canteen in the F1 paddock also until 2030. Lewis Hamilton may be 41 years old but he has shown little sign of slowing down, looks set to continue into 2027 and maybe even beyond. Ferrari will almost certainly be his final team. Result: No room at the Maranello inn.

Mercedes have nothing official beyond 2026, but they highly look like having the next big talent (and maybe world champion) in Kimi Antonelli and so expect them to give him an massive salary boost in return for long term commitment very soon.

That's all the current top teams in F1. The scraps from them being Verstappen's strictly No.2 team-mate at Red Bull, second in command at a McLaren team dedicated to Norris, and ditto Antonelli at Mercedes.

Remember this isn't just for 2027, this goes on until the end of 2030.

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Can any team offer a chance to reach F1's summit?

Where are the spare seats? Only one team with any sort of realistic ambition of reaching the top has any sort of short term options opening up before the end of the decade, and that's Aston Martin.

Fernando Alonso is likely to give it one more season at most for the team, but even then Adrian Newey and Honda getting it right before 2030 isn't a guarantee.

Even if they do, the big names to fill those seats could come from those at top teams already including George Russell, Oscar Piastri or even Carlos Sainz following his previous spell at Ferrari.

That's five teams down and leaves six behind which consist of an Alpine team that have showed no sign of trying to restore the Benetton and Renault glories of the mid-1990s and mid-2000s, Red Bull's B team, a behind-the-times Williams, underfunded Haas, and the L-plated Cadillac.

Audi are the unknown here, but they are unlikely to make significant gains before 2030.

What hope for young drivers?

The overall issue here is where are the opportunities for other drivers to land a major seat in F1? Let's say a current F2 driver impresses and lands a drive at one of the previous six mid-field or lower teams, where is their path of progression?

Take Racing Bulls. Let's play the scenario that rookie Arvid Lindblad annihilates Liam Lawson. The best he can hope for is playing second fiddle to Verstappen at Red Bull as a form of promotion.

Or another example, an F2 champion outperforms Carlos Sainz at Williams. Does he still get the nod over Russell at Aston Martin? He certainly won't have the red carpet treatment at McLaren, Red Bull, Mercedes or Ferrari given their snuggly driver situation.

One caveat I'll admit is things change. Drivers can lose form, reputation and things can open up a little more for younger drivers.

For now though, Antonelli should be entirely grateful that Lewis Hamilton jumped out of what could be a championship winning seat at just the right time, because the path to the top for those following him looks a lot more complicated.

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Current F1 driver contracts with expiry dates

The full rundown on current driver deals looks like this:

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Written by

Dan Ripley - Global Editor

I've been a massive F1 fan since the mid 1990s and continue to study the history of the sport long before that. As an experienced motor sport reporter covering F1, MotoGP and the LeMans 24 Hour race, being part of GPFans has allowed me to work with a diverse team with all sorts of different backgrounds in watching the sport and given me a greater appreciation of F1.

View full biography

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