The big mistake that cost Lewis Hamilton an eighth F1 title, and it's not Abu Dhabi 2021

Lewis Hamilton will likely feel a tinge of regret when this weekend's Mexican Grand Prix is done and dusted.

It is very likely that Sunday's race at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez will crown Kimi Antonelli as F1's youngest world champion (you can check out the permutations and scenarios here).

But Hamilton's title loss pain won't come directly from 2026. Sure, he will have his grievances such as Ferrari not backing him as No.1 driver earlier in the season when he had a huge lead in the Drivers' standings over team-mate Charles Leclerc.

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Hamilton the world champion in 2026 at Mercedes?

The reality of the situation though is this very easily could have been the year where Hamilton was the man making F1 history by becoming an eight-time world champion... had he stayed at Mercedes.

What we do know is Hamilton had a contract with the Silver Arrows until the end of 2025 after signing a new two-year deal during 2023.

But ahead of the 2024 season, he sent F1 into a frenzy when it was confirmed he would be moving to Ferrari from 2025. Mercedes then needed a replacement, and that was the young rookie Antonelli.

It's important to remember Hamilton wasn't pushed out at Mercedes, team principal Toto Wolff was stunned when he heard his star driver of over a decade was leaving.

Why Hamilton had to leave Mercedes

But Hamilton had perhaps one last chance of realising his long-held dream of driving for Ferrari, and with Mercedes off the boil following 2021 he could not have been blamed for thinking this might be the right time to move to Maranello.

Another consideration though is whether Hamilton wins the title in 2026 even if he stays at Mercedes. This is because in three seasons alongside George Russell, he was beaten by his team-mate in two of them.

On this basis, there might be a stronger case for Russell being champion this year if his team-mate was Hamilton.

To counter against this, Hamilton struggled with ground effect cars, especially at Ferrari in his first season in 2025 when he failed to record a podium.

Hamilton's 2026 on the other hand is arguably his best since 2021, and it slightly mirrors Antonelli (who struggled in 2025, but with the new rules and regulations has turned the tables on Russell).

It's not outlandish to say Hamilton could have done a similar thing to Russell in 2026 if he had stayed at Mercedes.

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Would Mercedes have kept Hamilton for 2026?

The final thing to consider is do Mercedes keep Hamilton on for 2026 after his 2025 contract ends? This is a lot more difficult as Mercedes were keen to promote Antonelli to F1.

How much they would have done this at the expense of Hamilton or Russell no one will ever know because 2025 form at Mercedes would have been taken into account, and we don't have that from Hamilton.

But would Mercedes have axed one of F1's most successful drivers ever for a teenager? Not impossible, but imagine the carnage and the even more incredible pressure Antonelli would have had to prove himself at the team.

It doesn't seem a likely scenario, and weighing all this up, there is a strong case to suggest Hamilton would have been world champion this year had he stayed at Mercedes and resisted the overtures from Italy.

Hamilton regret?

Hamilton will of course think about this, but it's important to realise that he felt the need to scratch that Ferrari itch.

Even if he did become an eight-time champion at Mercedes, his retirement would have included pondering about the fact he never drove for Ferrari. Something which should be a factor for all the greats of F1.

It's not quite the lose-lose scenario as it can perhaps look when glancing at the 2026 standings. If anything, Hamilton will still look back on Abu Dhabi 2021 and the safety car call from race director Michael Masi as a much more bitter moment as far as title No.8 is concerned.

Perhaps most important of all though is Hamilton can still have his cake and eat it. If Ferrari build a rocket ship for 2027, who is to say he still can't achieve number 8?

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Written by

Dan Ripley - Global Editor

I've been a massive F1 fan since the mid 1990s and continue to study the history of the sport long before that. As an experienced motor sport reporter covering F1, MotoGP and the LeMans 24 Hour race, being part of GPFans has allowed me to work with a diverse team with all sorts of different backgrounds in watching the sport and given me a greater appreciation of F1.

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