Kimi Antonelli is falling into an F1 title trap and only Max Verstappen wins

Kimi Antonelli is going to be the next world champion. I know it, you know it - all of F1 knows it.

He will deserve it too. The Italian has been magnificent in 2026 following a really sticky 2025 where he was thrashed by Mercedes team-mate George Russell.

Winning five of the first six grands prix of the season (and finishing second in the Australian Grand Prix opener) helped the 20-year-old build a solid lead and it's crept up ever since thanks to his consistency and the fluctuations in form of his rivals.

Now he has a 102-point lead in the championship, and if things go near perfect at this weekend's United States Grand Prix, he could become Italy's first world champion since the great Alberto Ascari in 1953.

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Antonelli playing it safe

But since winning the Spanish Grand Prix in the middle of September, Antonelli has gone off the boil a little. He could only finish fifth in Azerbaijan after Russell outperformed him throughout the weekend, the Brit winning despite heavy pressure from Max Verstappen.

Antonelli was also made lightwork of in Malaysia for the Bahrain Grand Prix by Verstappen who overtook both Mercedes with relative ease to win his first race of the season.

Last time out in Singapore, Mercedes were nowhere as Verstappen cruised to victory and Antonelli benefitted from Lewis Hamilton's strategic meltdown and Lando Norris's clumsy race craft to snatch a podium.

F1 seasons tend to be remembered for what goes on in the second half of the season rather than the first, and as it stands Antonelli is playing the percentages and doing what he needs to achieve his lifelong dream.

Meanwhile, with finally a working car under him, Verstappen is still proving why he is probably the best driver in the world right now.

What this means is Antonelli will become world champion and yet the consensus will be that Verstappen is still top dog - by a long way. The Mercedes driver will not care one bit about this by the way, and honestly he probably shouldn't. It's all about just winning the title however you can and get that checked off.

But it would look so much better if he was going out, really challenging Verstappen and prove he is the next generation to take the fight to the four-time world champion on his way to taking the title. Light the fire properly for a future F1 rivalry.

Antonelli in danger of copying Norris

Right now this has echoes of Lando Norris's championship win last year, albeit not as pronounced.

Norris in the end was playing the percentages to get over the line, as Verstappen gobbled up a huge McLaren lead (which stood at over 100 points) in the second half of the season before only losing out by two points.

The title win has not really changed the perception on Norris in F1. Had he blitzed the Red Bulls and really taken the fight to Verstappen in the final few rounds than go defensive, then he might be viewed more favourably. Instead, he fell into the playing it safe trap.

He is still recognised as a very quick driver, but still not proven to really be a match for Verstappen. Unfortunately for Norris, the only talks on him being champion is him in danger of being statistically the worst in nearly 30 years.

More for the sake of F1 than Antonelli's, the Italian has to make a fight of it more on the track in the last few races to properly underline his world champion credentials, rather than just picking up the safe points.

We can't have another season where the world champion is being outshone and outdriven by Verstappen performing miracles in an inferior Red Bull.

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Written by

Dan Ripley - Global Editor

I've been a massive F1 fan since the mid 1990s and continue to study the history of the sport long before that. As an experienced motor sport reporter covering F1, MotoGP and the LeMans 24 Hour race, being part of GPFans has allowed me to work with a diverse team with all sorts of different backgrounds in watching the sport and given me a greater appreciation of F1.

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