F1 Austrian Grand Prix: Red Bull risk it all in bid to keep Max Verstappen

Verstappen in Barcelona — Photo: © IMAGO

Max Verstappen

Why Red Bull are risking it all as Max Verstappen exit looms

Verstappen's future hangs in the balance

Graham Shaw Consultant Editor

Digital sports specialist running global brands for 30 years

Thursday 25 June 2026 12:30 Updated: 17:48

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Red Bull will bring what the team is calling its 'biggest update package in years' to the Austrian Grand Prix this weekend in a desperate bid to keep Max Verstappen.

The 28-year-old Dutchman's future hangs in the balance after a turbulent start to the 2026 season, one which has seen the four-time world champion hammer the sport's controversial new regulations and struggle with his own car.

So far Red Bull's year has been massively underwhelming with Verstappen sitting in a lowly seventh position in the Drivers' standings after picking up just 55 points in the first six race weekends.

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Verstappen exit clause set to kick in

Those standings are massively significant as they mean Verstappen - who has a contract through to 2028 with Red Bull - will likely to be able to active his exit clause next month. It kicks in should he be outside the top two by the summer break, just as F1 silly season really gets into full swing.

Pos	Driver	Team	Points
1	Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team	156
2	Lewis Hamilton	Scuderia Ferrari HP	115
3	George Russell	Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team	106
4	Charles Leclerc	Scuderia Ferrari HP	75
5	Lando Norris	McLaren Mastercard F1 Team	73
6	Oscar Piastri	McLaren Mastercard F1 Team	68
7	Max Verstappen	Oracle Red Bull Racing	55

Verstappen met with Red Bull top brass recently in Austria, on the back of a disastrous early DNF at the Monaco Grand Prix. The meeting ended with nothing decided, Verstappen still unsure of his future and Red Bull reportedly in a state of growing panic.

The four-time world champion's manager Raymond Vermeulen admitted in the aftermath of that meeting that the exit clause IS real, and that his client's first choice would be to stay at Red Bull.

How likely is Verstappen to leave Red Bull?

Tellingly though, Vermeulen added a chilling footnote to his statement (for Red Bull at least) as he confessed: "We want to move forward with Red Bull and see Max finish his career here, but he should always have the opportunity to win.”

The last part of that message is the real crux of where this narrative is heading. The ball is now firmly in Red Bull's court - prove they can win again relatively soon and Verstappen will stay. If significant doubts persist, the biggest transfer in recent F1 history could well be on.

This weekend at the Red Bull Ring, the team's home track, comes a pivotal race. The stakes could not be any higher, and Red Bull are going for it all.

Widespread reports suggest the upgrades package is huge, even the team admits it is 'the biggest in years'. An entirely new car? Not far off if those reports are to be believed.

The Horner scenario, boot is now on the other foot

Some 12 months ago this race was effectively the final nail in the Red Bull coffin of then team principal Christian Horner. Verstappen was a DNF, team-mate Yuki Tsunoda was the last of the 16 finishers and Liam Lawson - the man Horner had fired earlier in the season - claimed a brilliant P6 for Racing Bulls.

It was the ultimate embarrassment for Red Bull and Horner paid the ultimate price a short time later, but in 2026 the boot could very well be on the other foot. If these upgrades do not hint at significant improvement, it could be Red Bull themselves getting dumped.

Horner paid the ultimate price after Austria in 2025.

The team's options here are also limited by the new ADUO (Additional Development Upgrades Opportunities), which look to level the power unit playing field in F1. The first standings say Red Bull have the best ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) and therefore get zero upgrades.

FIA ADUO Analysis
Engine	Teams	Upgrades
Red Bull Powertrains	Red Bull, Racing Bulls	Benchmark
Mercedes	McLaren, Williams, Mercedes, Alpine	One Upgrade
Ferrari	Haas, Cadillac, Ferrari	Two Upgrades
Audi	Audi	Two Upgrades
Honda	Aston Martin	Two Upgrades

So this is all about the chassis, the only area realistically where team principal Laurent Mekies and his crew of designers can do anything to persuade Verstappen to stay. And likely it all hinges on this weekend, no pressure Laurent.

Dutch publication De Telegraaf have reported the car now at last meets the strict 768-kilogram minimum (including the driver weight), so that is a positive start.

In recent months, the Milton Keynes-based squad have been hard at work shedding weight from the car and following earlier updates in Miami and Barcelona, the Spielberg improvements are crucial.

The engineers have also completely redesigned the sidepod profile and introduced a new floor. With thinner materials and reduced internal plumbing, Red Bull hope to eliminate every extra kilogram while complying with the new technical regulations.

Nobody could accuse Red Bull of not giving it everything, this weekend's huge package is a significant attempt to show Verstappen that they can turn this around.

So what happens next?

The summer break arrives after the Hungarian Grand Prix on July 26 - after that, assuming Verstappen is still outside the top two in the standings, his exit clause will become active.

According to recent reports from Swiss outlet Blick there is another issue for Red Bull - Verstappen would then have until October to actually activate his clause and move elsewhere. A decision that late would be disastrous for a team which not only would need a new number 1 driver, but also potentially face difficult questions from sponsors.

So far Verstappen and Red Bull have both said they will ideally have a decision to announce before the summer break, but there are many factors at play and huge transfers in any sport do not happen quickly.

Where would Verstappen go if he leaves Red Bull?

The most realistic option here is Mercedes, the team which dominated the first six races of 2026, mainly thanks to prodigious teenage talent Kimi Antonelli.

If Toto Wolff has the appetite to pair the phenom Antonelli with the brilliant Verstappen, then that would likely work for the Dutchman. Probably with an enormous paycheck into the bargain and George Russell making way.

Will Toto Wolff make a move for Verstappen?

McLaren is also a possible option, potentially in a straight swap with Australian Oscar Piastri. In terms of realistic landing spots, that is probably it.

A month ago you might well have included Ferrari as a genuine contender, but things change fast in F1 and Charles Leclerc has signed a new long-term contract and Lewis Hamilton is suddenly a rejuvenated force.

Aston Martin might also have been an option heading into 2026 - after all they hired Adrian Newey, the man who designed all of Verstappen's world championship-winning cars. But that project so far has been an embarrassing disaster, and the team is not close to winning just yet (although it could be sooner than we think).

So it is all on this weekend for Red Bull, at its home race on its home track, the team is risking it all. Succeed and a new Verstappen era begins. Fail, and a future without the greatest driver of this generation will surely beckon.

Written by

Graham Shaw - Consultant Editor

Digital sports leader with 30 years of senior level experience running global brands. Built sportinglife.com to be a behemoth in the UK as well as being in charge of the Planet Sport network of sites including planetf1.com, football365.com, teamtalk.com and planetrugby.com. Then grew goal.com to be the world's biggest soccer website in 18 languages and 37 territories. Was GM of Portals for Perform Group (now DAZN) with overall responsibility for sportingnews.com, spox.de and voetbalzone.nl.

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F1 Red Bull Max Verstappen Austrian Grand Prix Red Bull Ring