Max Verstappen F1 reign could end at 2026 Japanese Grand Prix

Max Verstappen in Shanghai — Photo: © IMAGO

Japanese Grand Prix

Max Verstappen F1 reign could end at 2026 Japanese Grand Prix

Verstappen is on a historic run in Japan

Chris Deeley

Tuesday 24 March 2026 10:54

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The Japanese Grand Prix is one of the best racing weekends of the F1 season.

Racing purists agree, new race fans agree, marketing departments agree (Seriously, a Godzilla crossover?!). You know who else agrees? Max Verstappen agrees.

Verstappen hasn't lost a race at Suzuka since 2019, and holds the record for the most consecutive wins in the race's history (4, a streak which is still active). He won every single race there in the ground effect era. He dominates.

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This year, however, things are different. While the Dutchman was able to keep the superior McLarens behind him last time out in 2025, it would be...staggeringly optimistic to suggest that he could extend his winning streak once again.

Could Max Verstappen win the Japanese GP?

While he was able to scrap his way up to sixth in Australia from last on the grid, Verstappen's Red Bull looks to be at best the fourth fastest car on the grid. He left Shanghai without a single point. A generationally talented driver can make up for a lot of a car's faults, but Verstappen was easily a second off Mercedes' pace in China. There's no driver that good.

Could Mercedes have some technical issues which bring Verstappen back into contention for a fifth straight win in Japan? It's possible, doesn't look likely. George Russell's minor fault in Chinese GP qualifying aside, the Merc's looked pretty bulletproof.

In fact, if any car's likely to give up the ghost mid-race...it's Verstappen's. Remember, it's not just the DNF in China. It was a software fault that sent him into the barriers at high speed in Melbourne qualifying, too. File that under 'don't bother hoping'.

Verstappen can feel a little hard done by that he's still one win in Japan short of Lewis Hamilton's five though, the most of any active driver. Remember how we said that Verstappen hasn't lost in Japan since 2019? Did you think it was weird that he's only got four wins in that time?

Yep, just as Red Bull were reaching their peak performance, there was that pesky Covid-19 pandemic. Given that he won nearly half of the races in 2021, it's fair to say he had at least a coin-flip chance of winning at Suzuka that year...if only F1 had actually raced there that year.

There it is, folks. The best chance of Max Verstappen matching Lewis Hamilton's five Japanese Grand Prix wins? A time machine, to go back and stop the spread of Covid-19. That's more realistic than him taking the chequered flag this coming Sunday.

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F1 Max Verstappen Japanese Grand Prix