F1 Odds: Chinese Grand Prix favourites and long shots as Lewis Hamilton roars back after ‘Macarena’ flop

Chinese Grand Prix

F1 Odds: Chinese Grand Prix favourites and long shots as Lewis Hamilton roars back after ‘Macarena’ flop

Hamilton qualified in P3 for Sunday's big race

Graham Shaw Consultant Editor

Digital sports specialist running global brands for 30 years

Saturday 14 March 2026 12:30 Updated: 13:27

Mercedes are once again favourites to take victory in Sunday’s F1 Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai, but rule out Lewis Hamilton at your peril.

Hamilton had appeared cooked on Friday when Ferrari’s much-vaunted new ‘Macarena’ rear wing was ditched after just one practice session.

But on Saturday the seven-time world champion roared back in great style to first claim a podium in the Sprint race, and then qualify third for Sunday’s Grand Prix.

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Hamilton was just 0.351 seconds behind the sport’s youngest ever pole sitter - 19-year-old Mercedes star Kimi Antonelli (7/4). He was also able to outqualify Ferrari team-mate Charles Leclerc and is a 9/1 shot to win (Leclerc is 12s)

Despite claiming pole, Antonelli is not the favourite to win Sunday’s race, after team-mate George Russell endured a Q3 nightmare thanks to gearshift issues. Eventually he would manage just one flying lap, enough to take P2 and to head the race win market at 4/6.

It was another absolute nightmare day for four-time world champion Max Verstappen (66/1), who again struggled to get his Red Bull anywhere near the front of the pack. He eventually qualified in eighth, almost a second off the pace.

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Latest F1 Chinese Grand Prix Odds

At the time of writing (Saturday, March 14) the odds to win in Shanghai look like this, including implied win probability for each driver:

Driver	Odds	Win Probability
George Russell	4/6	60.0%
Kimi Antonelli	7/4	36.4%
Lewis Hamilton	9/1	10.0%
Charles Leclerc	12/1	7.7%
Oscar Piastri	50/1	2.0%
Lando Norris	50/1	2.0%
Max Verstappen	66/1	1.5%
Pierre Gasly	300/1	0.3%
Isack Hadjar	350/1	0.3%
Oliver Bearman	500/1	0.2%
Lance Stroll	750/1	0.1%
Arvid Lindblad	750/1	0.1%
Carlos Sainz	750/1	0.1%
Valtteri Bottas	750/1	0.1%
Alex Albon	750/1	0.1%
Fernando Alonso	750/1	0.1%
Gabriel Bortoleto	750/1	0.1%
Nico Hulkenberg	750/1	0.1%
Sergio Perez	750/1	0.1%
Franco Colapinto	750/1	0.1%
Liam Lawson	750/1	0.1%
Esteban Ocon	750/1	0.1%

When did Lewis Hamilton last win a race?

Hamilton did win last year's Sprint in China, but obviously that was not an actual Grand Prix.

You have to go back to Belgium in the summer of 2024 (36 races ago) when Hamilton topped the podium after the disqualification of then Mercedes team-mate Russell at Spa.

When is the Chinese Grand Prix?

Lights out at Shanghai International Circuit will be at 7am UK time on Sunday March 15, which is 3am EST in the US. If you are watching on the West Coast, then things will get under way at midnight Saturday PST.

How to watch live

Sky Sports F1 will have the call in the UK, while Apple TV now has the right in the US.

If you are watching in the US, you can watch live on Sunday by accessing the seven-day free trial available to new Apple TV customers.

SPRINT RACE RESULTS: Hamilton survives safety car chaos for Chinese GP podium

Written by

Graham Shaw - Consultant Editor

Digital sports leader with 30 years of senior level experience running global brands. Built sportinglife.com to be a behemoth in the UK as well as being in charge of the Planet Sport network of sites including planetf1.com, football365.com, teamtalk.com and planetrugby.com. Then grew goal.com to be the world's biggest soccer website in 18 languages and 37 territories. Was GM of Portals for Perform Group (now DAZN) with overall responsibility for sportingnews.com, spox.de and voetbalzone.nl.

View full biography

F1 Max Verstappen Lewis Hamilton Ferrari Mercedes George Russell