Ricciardo to Mercedes? Verstappen and Norris team-mates? Extraordinary F1 predictions revealed

Have you ever been haunted by something you posted years ago that suddenly gains momentum again online? Have you then been made to feel silly about it by the hindsight police? If so, please get in contact with Will Buxton.

It's admittedly a tough job trying to predict what the F1 grid will look like in four years time. If you asked me about 2030, I'd argue Charles Leclerc would have left Ferrari, there would be no Max Verstappen in F1 and — the most adventurous take of them all — Lance Stroll will drive for Aston Martin.

Can you imagine how ridiculous I would then look if Verstappen was still winning titles with Red Bull? But that's the beauty of hindsight, you feel ordained to lord it over those who dared to deliver an opinion which then turned out to be wrong.

Take Will Buxton for example. In 2021, did he deliver some very silly takes about who would race on the 2025 grid? Yes. Was about 25 per cent of that list comprised of IndyCar and F2 drivers? Also yes. Am I going to sit from my lofty tower (two-bed terraced) and judge him for it? Absolutely.

First of all, some context. Back in 2021, Will Buxton wrote an article for the F1 website and was asked to predict the 2025 grid. Obviously, this being written nearly five years ago, there was no Cadillac, Racing Bulls were Alpha Tauri, Audi were Alfa Romeo and McLaren were painfully slow. So, some of his decisions are inflicted with contemporary limitations.

The article also contains a very important caveat, 'please remember, it’s just for fun, so don’t take it too seriously…', a plea to future fans to go easy on Buxton. Yeah, this is the F1 fanbase we're talking about. No chance.

No Hamilton or Alonso!?

The most striking predication from Buxton is what he didn't foresee, that Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso would still be on the grid in 2025. Neither champion features in his prophecy, in fact the grid is full of alien names and F1 hopefuls that never quite made it.

Of course, there's Verstappen and Lando Norris, both at Red Bull, but at time of writing neither driver had won an F1 world championship. So, the two most recent title holders at a top team is a pretty good take.

Next, Buxton has decided to retain Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz at Ferrari, which, fair play, would have remained their lineup in 2025 if it wasn't for that pesky Hamilton.

The pundit also got one half of Mercedes right with George Russell, and the other half oh so wrong with Daniel Ricciardo. Again here, hindsight is a privilege. In 2021, we were all still under the collective delusion that Ricciardo was actually good. Norris hadn't quite stuck the boot in yet to completely destroy Ricciardo's reputation, and that year the Aussie would go on to achieve one more glorious win at Monza.

So, what were McLaren supposed to be doing in 2025? Here comes the first of Buxton's evident IndyCar bias. Alongside Pierre Gasly, he placed Pato O'Ward, and now I'm shuddering at that strange alternate universe where Gasly and O'Ward are miffed about 'papaya rules' (I didn't realise it could get worse than it already is).

As for Piastri himself? Another name neglected by Buxton on this list, in favour of placing Nyck De Vries and Liam Lawson at Aston Martin, not just a really weird take, but also forgetting a Stroll shaped elephant in the room. Buxton then selected Esteban Ocon and Theo Pourchaire for Alpine, for no other reason other than they are French innit.

Now, I've been a bit unfair. We can only write with the knowledge we have at the time, and his predictions for Alpha Tauri are spookily accurate. We'll ignore Dennis Hauger and focus on the second driver he chose for Red Bull's sister team - Arvid Lindblad. Just a season out from his actual promotion. A smattering of applause for Will from the balcony, please.

He also predicted the rise of Kimi Antonelli, although at Williams alongside Jamie Chadwick which, alas, never came to fruition. Buxton then clearly ran out of steam for Alfa Romeo and went with the vibes choice of Mick Schumacher and Arthur Leclerc; because big surnames, Ferrari-backed, Italy, Alfa Romeo? Bosh.

Finally, the team you've all been waiting for, Haas. Why waste any time with a proper prediction for them? Let's just chuck Kyle Kirkwood and Zane Maloney at them and call it a day.

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