Data shows Red Bull are NOT FASTEST for first time this season

Qualifying at the Canadian Grand Prix was absolutely frantic.

However, the weather for Sunday's race looks clear and it’s expected to be dry, albeit cloudy and cold. Usually, in these conditions, Red Bull is the class of the field.

However, the recent string of updates by teams has shaken the pecking order up a bit. Let’s dive into some representative data from second practice to see which teams have closed the gap to Red Bull.

READ MORE: Leclerc hits out at Ferrari for ignoring his 'CLEAR OPINION' in Canada shambles

Potential Race Pace for the Top 4 Teams

1. For the first time in the race pace simulations, Leclerc could match Verstappen.

They were running similar fuel levels, Leclerc's top speeds were in the same range as the Red Bull driver and he did pretty much the same number of laps as Verstappen.

It's a shame that he didn’t qualify high enough to compete with Max. However, the longevity of the Ferrari tyres is still a question as can be seen in the distribution in the plot below, although temperatures are expected to be cold tomorrow which might help the Prancing Horse cars.

2. Aston Martin did not perform a representative race simulation on both cars. The focus I think was on using second practice to understand the aero upgrades and do some flow viz work for correlation purposes.

This might catch them out today in terms of strategy and they will have to be quick on their feet to understand the tyres to respond in the race.

3. Mercedes are dark horses for this race, they performed their race simulations early on when the track was still gripping up and track evolution at Montreal is big.

Therefore 0.75 seconds is not a big gap. Additionally, they have qualified on the second row of the grid with a car that is inherently better in race pace conditions because of the way it treats its tyres.

If they can keep their positions on the first lap, I see another double podium potential.

4. The McLarens might spring a surprise as well. Lando Norris looked very competitive in the cold conditions in terms of race pace. They are likely to be Canada’s best of the rest.

Race Strategies

In the event of a completely dry race, on paper, a two-stop strategy is the fastest.

Strategy 1: Two Stop: Medium / Soft / Soft

According to Pirelli’s simulations, a two-stop race is the fastest strategy for the race. However, teams have limited understanding of the tyres and like Barcelona teams will have to evaluate this strategy on the fly with possibly changing conditions and track temperatures. Also because of the lower track temps, teams might start on the soft to protect their starting positions.

Strategy 2: One Stop: Hard / Soft

A one-stop strategy would be ideal in these conditions as it would provide teams the time to respond to changing weather conditions. However, starting on the Hard is a good recipe for dropping down the grid at the start with low track temps. But this might be the preferred strategy for the second half of the grid.

Shubham Sangodkar is a former F1 Aerodynamicist with a Master's in Racing Car Design specialising in F1 Aerodynamics and F1 Data Analysis. He also posts aerodynamics content on his YouTube channel, which can be found here.

READ MORE: F1 Canadian Grand Prix weather forecast

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