F1 Singapore Grand Prix Odds: Verstappen the new favourite and Lewis Hamilton is BACK

Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen — Photo: © IMAGO

Singapore Grand Prix

F1 Singapore Grand Prix Odds: Max magnificent, Mercedes misery and Lewis Hamilton is BACK

Red Bull are now the team to beat and Ferrari are back in contention

Graham Shaw Consultant Editor

Digital sports specialist running global brands for 30 years

Wednesday 7 October 2026 15:27 Updated: 15:41

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Max Verstappen and Red Bull are officially back as F1 moves on to the Singapore Grand Prix this weekend.

The Dutchman finally claimed his first victory of 2026 (we do not count kart races against influencers and YouTubers at Silverstone) with a brilliant success in Sunday's chaotic Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia.

That evidence, just eight days on from a terrific second place in Azerbaijan, showed that Red Bull now have the chassis to take the fight to Mercedes as well as their best-in-class power unit (per the FIA's ADUO benchmarking).

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The result is a big change in the natural order of F1 odds heading to Marina Bay, with Verstappen now favourite to claim a second victory in a week in Sunday's race (8pm local time, 1pm UK, 8am Eastern).

The 29-year-old four-time world champion is the 11/4 market leader (26.7 percent implied win probability) as he looks for a 73rd Grand Prix victory.

Mercedes meanwhile came away from Malaysia with an air of disappointment after championship leader Kimi Antonelli was forced to play second fiddle to Verstappen at Sepang.

The 20-year-old Italian prodigy took another massive step towards becoming the sport's youngest ever world champion but was comprehensively outpointed by Verstappen in the battle for victory.

Antonelli is only 9/2 second best for Singapore (18.2 percent win probability), this on the back of Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies saying that the Marina Bay circuit may suit his team's car even more than Malaysia.

The big loser on Sunday in Sepang was Antonelli's Mercedes team-mate George Russell, who saw any lingering title hopes effectively disappear with a late DNF.

To add to Russell's misery he will now be forced to take a grid penalty in Singapore and is likely to start from the very back of the field. He is a 9/1 chance to turn that around (10 percent win probability).

The other big story from Sepang on Sunday was the resurgence of Ferrari as a car in contention for podiums and wins.

Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc fought back from early disaster to surge through the field to finish P3 and P4. That renaissance sees them both priced at 6/1 for this weekend's race in Singapore (14.3 percent win probability).

McLaren had another weekend of struggle in Sepang but defending world champion Lando Norris is still expected to go well here. He is a 5/1 shot, with team-mate Oscar Piastri on 9s.

Verstappen's Red Bull team-mate Isack Hadjar rounds out the top eight in the odds on 12/1 for Sunday at Marina Bay.

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Latest 2026 Singapore Grand Prix odds

The latest odds at the timing of writing, on Wednesday October 7, look like this:

2026 Singapore Grand Prix win odds
Driver	Team	Odds	Implied Win %
Max Verstappen	Red Bull	11/4	26.7%
Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	9/2	18.2%
Lando Norris	McLaren	5/1	16.7%
Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	6/1	14.3%
Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	6/1	14.3%
George Russell	Mercedes	9/1	10%
Oscar Piastri	McLaren	9/1	10%
Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	12/1	7.7%

Antonelli is only second best in the odds for Singapore.

Odds analysis: Track position rules

This is all about Qualifying - the race before the race. Whoever takes pole on Saturday in Singapore will be a red-hot market leader - so far 11 out of 16 pole sitters have gone on to win the race (68.8 percent success rate).

While the market right now is wide open, things WILL change again on Saturday and in a massive way given the difficulty in overtaking at Marina Bay.

Verstappen's speed over one lap (he claimed pole in Malaysia) and brilliant defensive ability will make him a massive favourite to claim his first win here should he qualify fastest.

The other thing to note here are Russell's odds. Remember he is set to take a grid penalty, though that is not officially confirmed yet so not fully reflected in his price.

When it is, his odds should be much much bigger for Sunday. Overtaking is difficult, and winning from the back of the field is pretty much impossible.

Written by

Graham Shaw - Consultant Editor

Digital sports leader with 30 years of senior level experience running global brands. Built sportinglife.com to be a behemoth in the UK as well as being in charge of the Planet Sport network of sites including planetf1.com, football365.com, teamtalk.com and planetrugby.com. Then grew goal.com to be the world's biggest soccer website in 18 languages and 37 territories. Was GM of Portals for Perform Group (now DAZN) with overall responsibility for sportingnews.com, spox.de and voetbalzone.nl.

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