F1 Odds: Mercedes dominate 2026 F1 championship markets after Italian GP triumph

George Russell, Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes, Italy, 2026 — Photo: © IMAGO

F1 Italian Grand Prix

F1 Odds: Mercedes dominate 2026 F1 championship markets after Italian GP triumph

The Silver Arrows are red-hot favourites

GPFans Staff

Monday 7 September 2026 12:59 Updated: 13:09

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Kimi Antonelli solidified his position as the hot favourite to secure the F1 driver’s championship for the first time with a brilliant Italian Grand Prix victory at Monza.

Mercedes have emerged from a fallow period with optimal engine and chassis regulations and their cars are by far the most superior this season, putting Red Bull and even McLaren into the shade.

Kimi Antonelli leads the F1 standings with 267 points, with a cool seven race wins to boot, ahead of team-mate George Russell in second (201 points, two wins), Lewis Hamilton of Ferrari is third with 191 points (one win). Lando Norris is in fourth with 171 points (2 wins), while Charles Leclerc is in fifth with 155 points (one win).

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The rest of the top 10 includes Max Verstappen, fresh from his commitment to staying at Red Bull for the foreseeable future, but his car remains largely uncompetitive as he languishes in sixth spot with 127 points.

Oscar Piastri - who ran his team-mate Norris so close last season - is down in seventh with 116 pts. Isack Hadjar (8th) has 71 points and Liam Lawson (9th) has 51 points. Pierre Gasly, who landed a shock pole at Monza before eventually finishing 7th, rounds out the top 10.

The recent European races proved pivotal in establishing Mercedes' championship lead as they strode away from their rivals. In Spa, Antonelli bounced back with victory and podium positions in Hungary and Zandvoort set the foundation for his dominant Monza victory. If he’s able to complete the job in Spain this weekend he will be in a supreme position to hold off his rivals in 2026.

In the Constructors' Championship, Antonelli and Russell’s ability to regularly score points - and complete virtually every race - means Mercedes are well in front here, too, ahead of Ferrari and McLaren. Cadillac - new additions to the grid - languish in dead last, without scoring a point as of yet.

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World Drivers' Championship Odds

Antonelli has firmly established himself as a gigantic favourite to claim his maiden Drivers' World Championship. With multiple wins under his belt this season, bookmakers view the Italian driver as nearly untouchable. Indeed Antonelli is as short as 1.1 at this point in the season on sports betting sites.

Antonelli is as short as 1.1 to be champion in 2026.

2026 Regulation Changes

The 2026 season saw the biggest changes to the F1 cars in a generation; a total overhaul of both engine architecture and chassis design was ratified and teams have been preparing for this - but perhaps not the backlash from fans - for over a year now.

The aim was to create lighter, more agile cars that facilitate closer wheel-to-wheel racing. The cars are now narrower, shorter, and 30kg lighter than their predecessors, riding on smaller tires to reduce weight and overall drag. Throw in ground-effect measurements and the car is practically unrecognisable from that of even a few years ago.

But it’s perhaps under the bonnet where things have changed the most. The electrical battery set-up - perhaps the most maligned changes among the hardcore fans - came with it a shift away from the fossil fuel era to synthetic fuel as F1 looks at a more sustainable future.

DRS - Drag Reduction System - which had been in place from 2011 until its removal for 2026 - was replaced by Manual Override Mode. Drivers under a second behind can be provided with a speed boost in the next straight.

It’s not been for everyone. F1 fans often hark back to a bygone era which is likely never returning, but the electrical power deployment has been criticised because of the ‘energy harvesting’ required throughout the lap, which many believe has detracted from the individual driver’s skill.

Overtake counts are up - which many were desperate for - but for some it seems to have come at the expense of the purity of what is designed to be the pinnacle of motorsport innovation.