F1 Odds: Bad news for Lewis Hamilton as 2026 drivers' title race takes a new twist

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari, Imola, 2025 — Photo: © IMAGO

F1 2026

F1 Odds: Bad news for Lewis Hamilton as 2026 title race takes a new twist

Hamilton and Ferrari fluffed their lines again

Graham Shaw Consultant Editor

Digital sports specialist running global brands for 30 years

Tuesday 25 August 2026 17:27

Make us your Google favorite

Lewis Hamilton's chances of claiming F1 world title number eight suffered another blow at Zandvoort on Sunday, and the new championship odds provide further grim fallout.

Hamilton could finish only fourth in the final Dutch Grand Prix after a frustrating weekend where he had earlier finished only seventh in the sprint race.

It meant the seven-time world champion lost further ground in the standings to the current championship leader, Kimi Antonelli of Mercedes. He was also caught in second place by Antonelli's team-mate George Russell. Antonelli now leads Hamilton and Russell by 59 points.

Article continues under video

But that was not the only bad news for Hamilton; he now knows for sure that reigning world champion Lando Norris is now arguably a bigger threat to Antonelli than he is.

The McLaren star made it back-to-back to wins after his recent success in Hungary, proving that the team in papaya are very much back in the hunt. Norris still trails Antonelli by a massive 83 points but McLaren are THE team on the rise right now.

F1 HEADLINES: Lewis Hamilton fumes at Ferrari as stars hit with huge Dutch Grand Prix penalties

Hamilton falls, Norris usurps seven-time champion

The upshot of the weekend's events on the Dutch coast mean Hamilton is no longer a 6/1 second favourite behind Antonelli to take a record eighth title in 2026.

The 41-year-old Ferrari star is now out to 12/1 (with an implied win probability of just 7.7%) and only joint third best along with Russell after being passed by new second favourite Norris. Lando is THE big mover after Zandvoort, in from 25/1 to 8/1.

Lando Norris is now second favourite for the title.

Despite evidence to the contrary (Ferrari right now appear to be screwing this up again), oddsmakers have not completely written off Hamilton's team-mate Charles Leclerc. He is a 25/1 shot but four-time champion Max Verstappen is out to 50/1 after an early crash saw him DNF at his home race.

Antonelli remains a very warm favourite at 2/7 heading next to his home race at the Italian Grand Prix on September 6.

Latest Drivers' Championship Odds

The latest drivers' odds from bet365 - correct at 1430 BST on Monday August 24, look like this:

F1 Drivers' Championship 2026 win odds
Driver	Team	Odds	Win Probability
Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	2/7	77.8%
Lando Norris	McLaren	8/1	11.1%
Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	12/1	7.7%
George Russell	Mercedes	12/1	7.7%
Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	25/1	3.8%
Max Verstappen	Red Bull	50/1	2%

Latest Constructors' Championship Odds

The latest constructors' odds have this is as effectively a one-horse race. Mercedes lead Ferrari by a massive 87 points in the standings with McLaren trailing by 162:

F1 Constructors' Championship 2026 win odds Team Odds Win Probability Mercedes 1/12 92.3% Ferrari 7/1 12.5% McLaren 20/1 4.8%

F1 ANALYSIS: Lewis Hamilton wants world title number 8 but Ferrari are really starting to screw this up

Written by

Graham Shaw - Consultant Editor

Digital sports leader with 30 years of senior level experience running global brands. Built sportinglife.com to be a behemoth in the UK as well as being in charge of the Planet Sport network of sites including planetf1.com, football365.com, teamtalk.com and planetrugby.com. Then grew goal.com to be the world's biggest soccer website in 18 languages and 37 territories. Was GM of Portals for Perform Group (now DAZN) with overall responsibility for sportingnews.com, spox.de and voetbalzone.nl.

View full biography

F1 Lewis Hamilton Lando Norris George Russell Kimi Antonelli