F1 Odds: Monaco Grand Prix favourites with Lewis Hamilton tipped to end long wait for victory

Antonelli and Hamilton in Canada — Photo: © IMAGO

Monaco Grand Prix

F1 Odds: Monaco Grand Prix favourites with Lewis Hamilton tipped to end long wait for victory

Hamilton is well fancied to end his winless streak

Graham Shaw Consultant Editor

Digital sports specialist running global brands for 30 years

Saturday 30 May 2026 14:27

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Lewis Hamilton has waited almost two long years for an F1 race victory, but the odds suggest that long drought could end at the Monaco Grand Prix.

The 41-year-old British superstar had a miserable first season at Ferrari, but things are very much looking up now for the seven-time world champion.

Hamilton had his best weekend so far in red at the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal, claiming a brilliant second place after a terrific tussle with great rival Max Verstappen.

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Lewis is thriving right now after deciding to stop preparing for races in Ferrari's simulator, and also delighted with the relationship he has built with new race engineer Carlo Santi. It's a far cry from the grim Riccardo Adami days of 2025.

Hamilton is doing things his own way now and running into hot form heading into the iconic showdown in his own Monaco backyard (he lives of course in the principality as do so many other drivers).

Oddsmakers believe the tight street circuit will really suit the Ferrari in 2026, and Hamilton and his team-mate Charles Leclerc head the betting right now.

Monegasque star Leclerc, a brilliant winner of this race on home soil in 2024, is the early favourite at 21/10, while Hamilton is next on 4/1.

This is not a normal scenario so far in 2026 but the all-conquering Mercedes pair of Kimi Antonelli and George Russell are not favoured to win this famous race.

Terrific Italian teenager Antonelli, who has claimed victories in the last four races and who heads the championship standings, is a 5/1 shot while team-mate George Russell - in the depths after a DNF in Canada - is 6/1.

Reigning world champion Lando Norris comes next on 7/1 and he will be hoping that McLaren can put behind them the strategic nightmare that cost them so dear in Canada. Team-mate Oscar Piastri, who also paid the price for the decision to start the race on intermediate tyres, is a 12/1 shot.

Also on 12/1 is four-time world champion Max Verstappen (Red Bull), who remains frustrated by the sport's new regulations in 2026 despite claiming his first podium of the year in Canada.

Latest odds to win the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix

The latest win odds at the time of writing look like this:

Monaco Grand Prix odds
Driver	Fractional Odds	Decimal Odds	American Odds	Implied Probability
Charles Leclerc	21/10	3.10	+210	32.26%
Lewis Hamilton	4/1	5.00	+400	20%
Kimi Antonelli	5/1	6.00	+500	16.67%
George Russell	6/1	7.00	+600	14.29%
Lando Norris	7/1	8.00	+700	12.50%
Max Verstappen	12/1	13.00	+1200	7.69%
Oscar Piastri	12/1	13.00	+1200	7.69%
Isack Hadjar	150/1	151.00	+15000	0.66%
Alex Albon	500/1	501.00	+50000	0.20%
Carlos Sainz	500/1	501.00	+50000	0.20%
Esteban Ocon	500/1	501.00	+50000	0.20%
Fernando Alonso	500/1	501.00	+50000	0.20%
Lance Stroll	500/1	501.00	+50000	0.20%
Nico Hulkenberg	500/1	501.00	+50000	0.20%
Oliver Bearman	500/1	501.00	+50000	0.20%
Pierre Gasly	500/1	501.00	+50000	0.20%
Sergio Perez	500/1	501.00	+50000	0.20%
Valtteri Bottas	500/1	501.00	+50000	0.20%

Latest odds for a podium finish

If you are a Hamilton fan looking for positive signs, the podium odds are even more promising - Lewis has a 58% implied probability of finishing in the top three:

Monaco Grand Prix Podium Finish odds
Driver	Fractional Odds	Decimal Odds	American Odds	Implied Probability
Charles Leclerc	4/7	1.57	-175	63.64%
Lewis Hamilton	5/7	1.71	-140	58.33%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli	4/5	1.80	-125	55.56%
George Russell	1/1	2.00	+100	50.00%
Lando Norris	1/1	2.00	+100	50.00%
Max Verstappen	2/1	3.00	+200	33.33%
Oscar Piastri	2/1	3.00	+200	33.33%
Isack Hadjar	25/1	26.00	+2500	3.85%
Pierre Gasly	100/1	101.00	+10000	0.99%
Arvid Lindblad	250/1	251.00	+25000	0.40%
Alexander Albon	400/1	401.00	+40000	0.25%
Carlos Sainz	400/1	401.00	+40000	0.25%
Esteban Ocon	400/1	401.00	+40000	0.25%
Fernando Alonso	450/1	451.00	+45000	0.22%

When did Lewis Hamilton last win an F1 race?

Hamilton did win a Sprint race for Ferrari at the Chinese Grand Prix in 2025, but that does not count here.

The last actual Grand Prix win for the F1 legend came at the Belgian Grand Prix in Spa on July 28, 2024 - 41 races ago.

Hamilton actually finished second that day but was awarded the race by the stewards after the disqualification of Mercedes team-mate George Russell.

Monaco Grand Prix new date and start time

This iconic race - first run way back in 1929 - has a new date this year after being moved back into June to align better with F1's sustainability drive.

Instead of taking place in late May, the race now goes ahead on Sunday June 7, with practice starting two days earlier on Friday June 5.

The race proper gets under way at 3pm local time, which is 2pm in the UK, 9am Eastern in the United States or 6am Pacific.

How to watch the Monaco Grand Prix on TV

Sky Sports F1 as ever will have the call in the UK, with Channel 4 delivering highlights later in the day. Apple TV now has the rights in the US and new users can watch at no cost by taking up the free trial option.

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Written by

Graham Shaw - Consultant Editor

Digital sports leader with 30 years of senior level experience running global brands. Built sportinglife.com to be a behemoth in the UK as well as being in charge of the Planet Sport network of sites including planetf1.com, football365.com, teamtalk.com and planetrugby.com. Then grew goal.com to be the world's biggest soccer website in 18 languages and 37 territories. Was GM of Portals for Perform Group (now DAZN) with overall responsibility for sportingnews.com, spox.de and voetbalzone.nl.

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