Max Verstappen F1 championship hangs in the balance after Red Bull horror show

It's March. The sun is shining. The birds are singing. Formula 1 writers are loading up on coffee and energy drinks because of things like 'time zones' and 'their contracts'. There's an actual race weekend. Nature is healing.

Max Verstappen might not see things in such a positive light.

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The Dutchman comes into this season defending his drivers' title for the fourth year in a row, but the noises coming out of Red Bull have been less than encouraging over the winter.

Pre-season testing in Bahrain didn't exactly put those noises to bed, and now we've finally seen what the reigning champion has to work with in a slightly more representative session.

It...wasn't great. Verstappen was visibly fighting the car at times, and could only land fifth on the leaderboard in FP1. Then he got beaten by both 'junior' Racing Bulls drivers in FP2.

READ MORE: Australian Grand Prix session red flagged by BIZARRE issue

On paper, this wasn't an absolute disaster of a day – not one sufficient for the massive overreaction that you clicked on, at least. Fifth and seventh in two sessions, not great but not Haas. Vomit and move on. Right?

It doesn't take much scratching of the surface of the day to say 'ahh, maybe not'. The only reason Verstappen won last year was a truly rapid start to the season, because Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris (maybe Oscar Piastri, too) were all faster than him in the second half.

Leclerc was fast on Friday. Norris and Piastri were both incredibly strong. Lewis Hamilton...was also there, and outpaced the reigning champ in FP2. At this point, it's pretty clear that Verstappen is driving – at best – the third best car on the grid. Hell, the Mercedes looked great on long runs too.

More worrying than that? Both Ferraris were fast. Both McLarens were fast. The other Red Bull was 1.2 seconds off the pace in both sessions, and landed 16th and 17th on the timesheets. Verstappen is still clearly getting the best possible performance out of his machinery, but the limit of the faults he can cover up has been reached.

Ask the man himself. Speaking after the session, he said 'it's going to be difficult to solve'. 'Now we're not enough to compete at the front'.

Screenshot this if you like. Get it ready to be posted on Old Takes Exposed in December. Max Verstappen does not have a chance in hell to win the F1 world championship this year. He probably won't finish in the top three.

Red Bull had their time, and other teams caught up with them last season. This season, those other teams have overtaken them. The car is just not there right now.

Push hard as hell. Try and steal a few wins here and there. Reset for the new regs next season. But don't expect to arrive in Melbourne this time next year as a reigning champion.

READ MORE: Huge crash brings out second red flag at Australian GP

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