Where could Mercedes take Lewis Hamilton engine pain?

Lewis Hamilton after his failure at Zandvoort — Photo: © LAT Images

Mercedes

Where could Mercedes take Hamilton engine pain?

Mercedes may yet need to hand Hamilton a new PU

Sam Hall

Saturday 2 October 2021 08:00

Lewis Hamilton leads the F1 drivers' standings by two points with seven races remaining, but with a potential power unit change on the horizon, where should Mercedes take the hit of any penalty?

Red Bull gave Max Verstappen a fresh PU for the Russian Grand Prix last weekend and is expected to now reach the end of the season without further penalties, but this may not be the case for Hamilton.

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The Mercedes power unit that expired during practice in the Netherlands may have been on its last legs, but nursing two power units through numerous power-sensitive circuits is a burden it is difficult to imagine any driver and team coping with.

Our question is a simple one. Where should Hamilton take his pain?

Let us know your thoughts in the poll at the bottom of the page.

Turkish Grand Prix - October 8-10

This track may prove the most favourable.

In 2011, the event set a record for the number of overtakes in a dry race with 79, and although the cars differ considerably aerodynamically, overtaking opportunities will arise.

After Verstappen's exceptional damage limitation in Russia, Mercedes must perform the equivalent to prevent a sizeable margin appearing in the standings.

The difficulty in taking a penalty at Istanbul Park is the relative lack of data to support simulations given the extraordinary conditions that arose last year after a new surface was laid. For this year, the track has been water blasted to improve grip.

Chance of a PU change: 7/10

United States Grand Prix - October 22-24

Hamilton's last win at the Circuit of the Americas may now be four years ago, but it is impossible to deny his affinity with the country.

Four consecutive wins from 2014-17 mark the Austin track as his territory and most importantly, it is a circuit at which Red Bull has been victorious only once.

Despite never winning and one DNF aside, Verstappen has consistently finished in the top four at COTA, even when driving for Toro Rosso.

Even so, there are at least four prime overtaking spots around the track and a clever strategy could enable solid damage limitation.

Chance of a PU change: 5/10

Mexican Grand Prix - November 5-7

If America is Hamilton's turf, Mexico belongs to Red Bull.

On both occasions that Hamilton achieved championship success at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, his fourth and fifth titles, it was Verstappen that won the race.

Although Hamilton was successful the last time F1 visited Mexico in 2019, it was Verstappen who set the fastest qualifying time before his race was ruined by an early puncture.

Red Bull took its pain in Mercedes' Russian stronghold and Mercedes could well decide to copy that move in Mexico.

It is unlikely, however, especially with few passing places and a middle sector that owes itself to high tyre degradation when sat in turbulent air.

Chance of a PU change: 4/10

Brazilian Grand Prix - November 12-14

The high altitude of the Mexican GP always places added stress on power units and with Brazil the middle race in a triple-header, there will certainly be some itchy trigger fingers.

Mexico, you would expect, would be the last race event for that particular power unit meaning it would only be used for Friday running in Brazil.

Overtaking is possible in Brazil - we have seen plenty of comeback drives in recent history - but the circuit is far from the most power dependent on the calendar meaning the benefit of a fresh unit could be wasted.

With weather impossible to predict, if Mercedes were to change in Brazil, it would likely be a last-minute decision.

Chance of a PU change: 8/10

Qatar Grand Prix - November 19-21

Qatar could just be the most power-hungry circuit on the calendar this year as it is dominated by medium-speed corners that make following difficult.

But as has been so often demonstrated by Ducati in MotoGP, a strong engine makes mincemeat of rivals on the kilometre-long main straight.

Whether this will translate into F1 remains to be seen but the issue here is track layout.

Passing anywhere other than down the start-finish straight looks likely to be close to impossible, a fact that may deter Mercedes with concerns no doubt arising over the amount of progress Hamilton would make.

With two far worse options remaining after Qatar, this very much has a last-chance saloon vibe to it.

Chance of a PU change: 6/10

Saudi Arabian Grand Prix - December 3-5

Saudi Arabia will surely see overtaking come at a premium. This, of course, is said with the caveat that the circuit will be making its debut on the calendar, though the narrow 'street' layout does little to offer encouragement.

Entering the final furlong of the championship race, assuming the battle remains alive, one would expect both Red Bull and Mercedes would want to allow Hamilton and Verstappen to battle without fear of penalties hanging over them.

Chance of a PU change: 1/10

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix - December 10-12

Should Mercedes wait until the final race of the year to replace Hamilton's power unit, it would be surprising to say the least.

Although Abu Dhabi was a Mercedes stronghold until Verstappen ended the Silver Arrow's six-year spell of dominance in last year's race, overtaking is far from simple and limits the possibility of a strong recovery drive.

This coupled with the unknown of the new banked curves and other circuit changes make this the least likely option that remains.

The only reason for a PU change here would be the loss of another unit between the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix and the morning of the season finale.

Chance of a PU change: 1/10