F1 Odds: Azerbaijan Grand Prix favourites and the grim reality for Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari

Russell, Antonelli and Hamilton stood next to Schiff, who is interviewing Hamilton post-session — Photo: © IMAGO

Azerbaijan Grand Prix

F1 Odds: Azerbaijan Grand Prix favourites and the grim reality for Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari

Who wins in Baku on Saturday?

Graham Shaw Consultant Editor

Digital sports specialist running global brands for 30 years

Tuesday 22 September 2026 19:45

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The odds for this weekend's F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku reflect the grim reality for Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari.

A few short weeks ago, the seven-time world champion appeared very much in the hunt for a record eighth title as he trailed Kimi Antonelli by just 32 points in the Drivers' standings after the British Grand Prix in early July.

Fast forward five races and Hamilton now trails the Italian prodigy by 101 points as Ferrari falter and hope turns to tension and rumours in Maranello.

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Things are unlikely to improve for Hamilton this weekend, with oddsmakers placing three teams ahead of him in the pecking order.

Antonelli is a warm favourite at 6/5 with a resurgent defending champion Lando Norris (McLaren) next at 15/4. Then comes Antonelli's Mercedes team-mate George Russell on 6/1.

Even Red Bull's Max Verstappen is ahead of Hamilton in the odds, on 7/1, before we get to Lewis on 8/1.

So why are Ferrari so weak in the betting? That would likely be down to their power unit - which despite a pair of ADUO upgrades has failed to get even close to the dominant Mercedes engine. The one which Norris and McLaren of course also run with.

With long straights being a thing on the Baku City Circuit, the SF-26's terrific chassis is likely to have less of an impact than at other tracks. Bad news for Hamilton and team-mate Charles Leclerc.

The Monegasque, who may end up taking a grid penalty here, is a 10/1 shot while Norris' McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri is 28/1.

The returning Red Bull star Isack Hadjar - back after three races out with a wrist injury - is 100/1.

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2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Win Odds

The latest odds from bet365 for Saturday's big race look like this:

2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix win odds
Driver	Team	Odds	Implied Win %
Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	6/5	45.5%
Lando Norris	McLaren	15/4	21.1%
George Russell	Mercedes	6/1	14.3%
Max Verstappen	Red Bull	7/1	12.5%
Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	8/1	11.1%
Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	10/1	9.1%
Oscar Piastri	McLaren	28/1	3.4%
Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	100/1	1%

Why is the Azerbaijan Grand Prix on a Saturday?

You may have noticed we said 'Saturday's race' earlier this article - this weekend's schedule looks different to the usual F1 weekend.

Everything gets under way 24 hours earlier than usual - with Free Practice starting on Thursday, Qualifying on Saturday and the Azerbaijan Grand Prix on Saturday (1200 BST).

The shift is to avoid a clash with Azerbaijan Remembrance Day, which takes place on Sunday September 27.

Written by

Graham Shaw - Consultant Editor

Digital sports leader with 30 years of senior level experience running global brands. Built sportinglife.com to be a behemoth in the UK as well as being in charge of the Planet Sport network of sites including planetf1.com, football365.com, teamtalk.com and planetrugby.com. Then grew goal.com to be the world's biggest soccer website in 18 languages and 37 territories. Was GM of Portals for Perform Group (now DAZN) with overall responsibility for sportingnews.com, spox.de and voetbalzone.nl.

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F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix