F1 Odds: Antonelli penalty means we have a new favourite in big Italian Grand Prix shakeup

Lewis Hamilton smiles as Kimi Antonelli pouts at the Barcelona GP — Photo: © IMAGO

F1 Italian Grand Prix

F1 Odds: Antonelli penalty means we have a new favourite in big Italian Grand Prix shakeup

Grid penalty incoming for Kimi

Graham Shaw Consultant Editor

Digital sports specialist running global brands for 30 years

Sunday 30 August 2026 15:27

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F1's odds markets are in meltdown ahead of the Italian Grand Prix with a new favourite to win the big showdown in Monza.

Brilliant young Italian superstar Kimi Antonelli - currently 59 points ahead in the Drivers' championship standings - would be starting a hot favourite on home soil but for one key fact. He will take a grid penalty at the 'Temple of Speed'.

Reliability issues through the first half of the season have left Antonelli and Mercedes team-mate George Russell on the brink of penalties for passing the allowed humber of power unit components in one season.

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The Silver Arrows are still pondering when Russell should take his penalty, but they have decided that Antonelli - who turned 20 years old only last Tuesday - will take his at Monza. The theory is this is a track which will allow him the best chance to recover the situation on Sunday afternoon.

What that means is we have a new favourite, and it is not Lewis Hamilton or Russell despite them being the closest challengers to Antonelli right now (they share second place).

The new market leader is defending world champion Lando Norris after he claimed back-to-back wins for resurgent McLaren at the Hungarian and Dutch grands prix.

Norris, who signed a new contract extension with the papaya squad on Saturday, now appears to be the fastest man on the grid and he is a very warm 6/4 favourite to complete a hat-trick of wins at Monza.

Russell, with Antonelli unlikely to be a factor for the win, is the lead Mercedes driver on 9/4 while the Ferrari pair of Hamilton and Charles Leclerc are both 7/1 for their home race after their weekend of squabbles and disappointment in Zandvoort.

Next comes Antonelli on 10/1 (9.1 percent implied win probability), with Red Bull's four-time world champion Max Verstappen on 14/1. McLaren's Oscar Piastri completes the drivers from the big four teams on 16/1.

Antonelli is now out to 10/1 with that grid penalty to come.

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Latest Italian Grand Prix win odds

The latest win odds for the 2026 Italian Grand Prix, from oddsmaker bet365, are as follows (correct at 1430 on Sunday August 30):

Italian Grand Prix 2026 win odds
Driver	Team	Odds	Win Probability
Lando Norris	McLaren	6/4	40%
George Russell	Mercedes	9/4	30.8%
Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	7/1	12.5%
Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	7/1	12.5%
Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	10/1	9.1%
Max Verstappen	Red Bull	14/1	6.7%
Oscar Piastri	McLaren	16/1	5.9%

When is the 2026 Italian Grand Prix?

The race is scheduled to start at 3pm local time (2pm UK, 9am Eastern, 6am Pacific) on Sunday September 6.

It will be broadcast live by Sky Sports F1 in the UK, with Channel 4 having a lengthy highlights package later in the day. Apple TV has the call in the US (new customers can activate a seven-day free trial).

Written by

Graham Shaw - Consultant Editor

Digital sports leader with 30 years of senior level experience running global brands. Built sportinglife.com to be a behemoth in the UK as well as being in charge of the Planet Sport network of sites including planetf1.com, football365.com, teamtalk.com and planetrugby.com. Then grew goal.com to be the world's biggest soccer website in 18 languages and 37 territories. Was GM of Portals for Perform Group (now DAZN) with overall responsibility for sportingnews.com, spox.de and voetbalzone.nl.

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F1 Lewis Hamilton Lando Norris Kimi Antonelli Italian Grand Prix