Mercedes and McLaren just gave Red Bull wings with $500million Verstappen transfer mistake

When Max Verstappen put pen to paper on that record-breaking F1 contract extension last Thursday, it was the rebirth of Red Bull Racing.

And incredibly, it was all made possible by two of their closest rivals deciding for whatever reason not to sign the best driver in the sport.

This was a 28-year-old four-time world champion at the absolute peak of his powers, effectively available on a free transfer.

When Verstappen's much-publicised exit clause became active at the summer break, it gave him the chance to test the open market. But it appears Mercedes and McLaren were both happy with their current lineups.

Eventually Verstappen executed what he always said was his preferred option, continuing his future with the team who gave him his big opportunity a decade ago. But would he have done so if the opportunity to wear silver or papaya next season had materialised?

Verstappen had been clear throughout the whole dramatic saga that he wanted to drive a car capable of challenging for race wins and championships. Right now that doesn't exist at Red Bull, but it does at both Mercedes and McLaren.

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Verstappen's contract sounds expensive - it's really not

The cost in contractual terms of signing would have been significant - reports suggest the deal he eventually agreed with Red Bull is worth north of $100million per season per season.

The potential cost could be $500million over the four years - that might sound exorbitant, but it is not.

Mercedes and McLaren are both commercial success stories and the sport is absolutely booming. And crucially Verstappen's contract would not have counted a single cent against the sport's $215million cost cap.

The benefits of signing Max

Bringing the Dutchman on board would have likely delivered incremental commercial gains through sponsorship and merchandising, lessening any financial burden.

In both cases it would have also likely delivered a box-office driver pairing, either with brilliant teenager Kimi Antonelli at Mercedes or reigning world champion Lando Norris at McLaren.

So we know what the benefits would have been to Mercedes and McLaren, but there is another one. Signing Verstappen would have meant nobody else could have him, and likely dealt a death blow to this version of Red Bull.

Red Bull were on their knees

The Milton Keynes team has suffered a major talent drain during the last 24 months with Christian Horner, Adrian Newey, Helmut Marko, Jonathan Wheatley, Rob Marshall and Gianpiero Lambiase either gone or about to head out of the door.

Losing Verstappen would have been catastrophic both from a racing and a commercial perspective. Top-class though they are, do we really think the likes of George Russell or Oscar Piastri would have brought the same lustre?

This is the most brutal of sports, one in which the battle for those 22 seats is a dog-eat-dog fight every single season. So why didn't Toto Wolff or Zak Brown take the opportunity to apply one massive kick to Laurent Mekies and Red Bull with the team on its knees?

Now Verstappen and his team will come again

Now, instead, they have given one of their biggest opponents a reprieve, the chance to rebuild around Verstappen as the superstar. His continued presence will attract fresh talent to the team and will maximise performance every time he gets into a car.

While points are hard to come by right now, the Red Bull Powertrains project has already delivered the best power unit on the grid in its first season (per FIA ADUO benchmarking), and the team is already starting to put the focus on its 2027 car.

Wolff and Brown both had the opportunity to make themselves stronger and remove a competitor from the conversion.

Neither took the golden opportunity presented to them, instead they gave Red Bull wings, and it may well be a decision they will live to regret.

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