F1 Odds: Australian Grand Prix favourites and long shots, Lewis Hamilton is BACK

Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari, Bahrain, 2026 — Photo: © IMAGO

Australian Grand Prix

F1 Odds: Australian Grand Prix favourites and long shots, Lewis Hamilton is BACK

Ferrari's odds are tumbling as Hamilton and Charles Leclerc head for Melbourne

Graham Shaw Consultant Editor

Digital sports specialist running global brands for 30 years

Saturday 28 February 2026 21:57

The 2026 F1 season gets under way with the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne, and the odds are changing fast ahead of the big showdown at Albert Park.

A few short weeks ago Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari were absolutely out of the running for early race wins in 2026 on the back of an absolutely dismal 2025 at Maranello.

Hamilton started his Italian adventure by finishing a lowly sixth in the Drivers’ Championship - some 267 points behind eventual king Lando Norris (McLaren).

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But after Bahrain testing revealed considerable promise in the new SF-26 car (and some genius design work), things have turned upside down.

From being out of the running, Hamilton (and of course team-mate Charles Leclerc) are all of a sudden right in the hunt for victory.

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Latest 2026 Australian Grand Prix odds

The current win odds for Melbourne look like this - Hamilton was 33/1 before testing so the change is pretty astonishing…

15/8 George Russell (Mercedes)
4/1 Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
9/2 Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
11/2 Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
6/1 Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
8/1 Lando Norris (McLaren)
14/1 Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
50/1 Isack Hadjar (Red Bull)
80/1 Pierre Gasly (Alpine)
All others 150/1 or bigger

Why are Ferrari right back in the hunt?

Basically this is all on the back of a very promising showing in Bahrain testing. First of all Leclerc set the fastest time in each of the two separate three-day testing sessions.

Also Ferrari is expected to have a major advantage at the start of races in 2026 after it mastered the complex procedure needed to get cars off the line. Those new 2026 regulations are absolutely brutal.

Ferrari also showed off some rare innovation with a genius rear wing trick which could also be in play for Melbourne.

Are Mercedes still the front runners?
For now, definitely yes, though there is significant controversy about their engine compression ratio trick which has the other teams up in arms. That though will only be in play until June 1 after an F1 ruling on Saturday.
For Melbourne though George Russell will start a warm favourite if qualifying delivers the Mercedes performance many experts expect.

What about Verstappen and Norris?

Verstappen is third favourite here, but mainly because Red Bull is starting its own power unit project with Ford this year. While the partnership has started well, there is a feeling that the Milton Keynes team might be playing catchup in the early going.

As for Norris and McLaren, they appeared to be the fourth fastest team in testing, despite running with a Mercedes power unit.

How much do we really know?

This is the most valid question of all. There is much talk for example of Mercedes ‘sandbagging’ - and their favourite’s tag is very much based on that.

In truth we will only really find out when qualifying takes place in Melbourne.

When is the Australian Grand Prix?

Practice to start the season gets under way on Friday March 6, before Qualifying takes centre stage on Saturday March 7.

The Australian Grand Prix takes place on Sunday March 8 with a 3pm local time start. That is 4am in the UK, and 11pm Eastern in the US on Saturday March 7.

Sky Sports will again have the call on TV in the UK while there is a big change in the US with Apple TV taking over from ESPN.

Written by

Graham Shaw - Consultant Editor

Digital sports leader with 30 years of senior level experience running global brands. Built sportinglife.com to be a behemoth in the UK as well as being in charge of the Planet Sport network of sites including planetf1.com, football365.com, teamtalk.com and planetrugby.com. Then grew goal.com to be the world's biggest soccer website in 18 languages and 37 territories. Was GM of Portals for Perform Group (now DAZN) with overall responsibility for sportingnews.com, spox.de and voetbalzone.nl.

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F1 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari Australian Grand Prix