How Max Verstappen can lose his championship crown in Las Vegas

It's been a long time since we've been able to say this, but by the end of this weekend, Max Verstappen may not be in contention for the F1 world championship anymore.

December 12 2021. That fateful day in which Verstappen became an F1 world champion for the first time at the expense of Lewis Hamilton's record-breaking eighth title was now 1,437 days ago.

It was just before 3pm on that day that we could still call Hamilton the world champion, but since Verstappen's last lap overtake and subsequent race victory, we've been calling the Dutchman the 'reigning champion' of our sport.

Three more titles have followed consecutively but now, finally, he is beginning to lose his grip on the famous trophy.

The two McLaren drivers have been too strong for even Verstappen in 2025, and Lando Norris currently leads the Dutchman by 49 points with three race weekends remaining.

That means that by the time we finish the Las Vegas Grand Prix on Sunday (or Saturday depending on where you're tuning in from) Verstappen may no longer be in the fight to retain his title.

Las Vegas 2025 F1 weekend schedule

How will Verstappen be ruled out of the title fight?

After Vegas, there are a maximum of 58 points available to the drivers, with the Qatar GP being a sprint weekend, before a season finale at Abu Dhabi.

That means that, if Norris outscores Verstappen by nine points this weekend, then the four-time champion will be unable to win the championship, with only a tie on offer alongside Norris.

In the event of a tie however, the Dutchman would still lose to Norris given that the Brit has won more grands prix than Verstappen this season.

So, if Norris finishes first and Verstappen third - just like what happened in the full-length Brazilian GP - then Verstappen will be eliminated from the title fight.

The same will be true if Norris finishes second, and Verstappen finishes sixth or lower, or if the Brit claims the final podium spot but Verstappen is unable to finish higher than seventh.

Even if Norris finishes fifth, he can knock Verstappen out of the championship battle if the Dutchman finishes outside of the points or - probably more likely - doesn't finish the race.

Despite also being in the title fight, Oscar Piastri is not able to knock Verstappen out on his own this weekend, so even if Norris and Verstappen both DNF and Piastri wins, all three drivers will still have a chance heading into the final two race weekends.

Can Norris win the title this weekend?

While the scary threat of four-time champion Verstappen - who beat Norris to championship success in 2024 - can be taken out of the title equation in Vegas, Norris' team-mate Piastri cannot.

So, no, Norris cannot win the title in Vegas, but a good result for the Brit would make it likely that he could wrap it up in Qatar the week after.

Even if Norris wins the Las Vegas GP and Piastri DNFs, the gap between the two drivers would be at 49 points, not the 59-point margin that would knock Piastri out of the fight.

What's the state of play in the constructors' championship?

With both Norris and Piastri in championship-challenging form in 2025, McLaren managed to wrap up the constructors' championship at the start of October at the Singapore Grand Prix.

But the fight for second in the constructors' standings is still on. Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari are all in that fight.

Nothing can be finalised in that sense at the Las Vegas GP, but Mercedes are currently 32 points ahead of third-place Red Bull, and would take a huge stride to securing second with a strong result in Vegas.

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