When and where Max Verstappen can secure third F1 title

Verstappen lacht tijdens persconferentie op Zandvoort — Photo: © LAT Images

F1 Superstars

When and where Max Verstappen can secure third F1 title

The dominant Dutchman is almost certainly set to secure a third world title – but how soon can he get it?

Lauren Sneath

Saturday 9 September 2023 12:57

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Max Verstappen has had an almost-perfect season, winning all but two races this year so far – and the two-time world champion looks set to clinch his third title soon.

At this point in the year, it starts to become clear when that might be. In fact, the Dutchman could secure the win as soon the Japanese Grand Prix.

As it stands, Verstappen has 364 points and is 145 points clear of his nearest rival Sergio Perez, who has 219.

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The only other mathematically possible contenders for the title this year are the drivers in P3 and P4 – Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton respectively.

Though admittedly a long shot, either Alonso or Hamilton could take the title win provided that they won almost all the remaining races, and the Dutchman failed to take home many points for the rest of the season.

This seems wildly unlikely, given the ominous dominance of Red Bull this year. In fact, Verstappen only needs to score another 32 points in the next eight races to force Hamilton out of the running, and 38 to do the same to Alonso.

Can Perez bring the fight to his team-mate?

Thinking more realistically about his rivals, Verstappen’s team-mate Perez seems the only driver even faintly likely to be able to mount a late challenge for the title.

The next two races in Singapore and Japan are too early for the title result to be sealed.

But if Verstappen, as many expect, wins the race in Singapore and takes an extra point for the fastest lap, he would reach 390 points, leaving Perez able to earn a maximum of 18 points.

This would leave the gap to second place at 171 points – but there would still be 206 points up for grabs in later races.

Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez are team-mates and rivals

If the same result occurred at the following race in Japan, however, Verstappen could secure his third consecutive title. By taking another 26 points, and having at least a 180-point lead after the Suzuka race, he would be unbeatable for the top spot in 2023.

However, if Perez held onto P2 in both races, or even took victories, the title could still be in contention.

So as it stands, if Verstappen can extend his lead to 180 points or more after the race in Japan, he will take the title after that race. But if the Mexican driver can pull out strong performances, maybe even wins, in Singapore and Japan, the title fight could continue until the Qatar Grand Prix or even the United States Grand Prix.

Barring race disasters over the rest of the season, the Red Bull drivers will likely take P1 and P2 in the championship this year.

While the order of the final standings is yet to be determined, the odds are that Verstappen’s period of dominance is not over yet. In fact, it may only be beginning.