Max Verstappen to tighten championship grip over Lewis Hamilton? - What to expect at the Mexican GP

Mexican Grand Prix

Verstappen to tighten championship grip over Hamilton? - What to expect at the Mexican GP

Verstappen heads Hamilton by 12 points with five races remaining

Sam Hall

Thursday 4 November 2021 10:36

F1 returns to Mexico after an enforced break last year with the championship battle tantalisingly poised.

Mexico marks the start of a dash to the finish line this season with five races set to take place across the next six weeks.

Max Verstappen leads Lewis Hamilton by 12 points in the drivers' standings and after a second consecutive double podium for Red Bull last time out in the United States, Mercedes' margin in the constructors' championship has shrunk to 23 points.

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With the battle beginning to heat up and the races now due to come thick and fast, here is what you can expect from the Mexican Grand Prix.

Advantage Red Bull

Mercedes and Hamilton may have been victorious on F1's last visit to Mexico in 2019, but make no mistake, the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez is a circuit that plays heavily into the hands of Red Bull.

Max Verstappen registered back-to-back wins at the circuit in 2017-18 and has set the first or second quickest time in qualifying on each of the last three visits.

With Mercedes struggling for reliability with its power units - more on that in a moment - the Mexican GP is a chance for Red Bull to further close the gap in the constructors' fight and for Verstappen to tighten his grip on the drivers' crown.

Were Red Bull to slip up, however, it would be all the more painful for the team.

Mercedes engine penalties

All but two drivers running Mercedes power units have been hit with grid penalties for exceeding the prescribed limit for the season.

Although Valtteri Bottas has been stung on three occasions, with the Finn on his sixth internal combustion engine [ICE] of the year, Hamilton has required only one extra.

The Mexican GP presents an interesting opportunity for Mercedes because with overtaking possible, will the team again elect to take a five-place grid penalty and add another fresh ICE to Hamilton's pool?.

He may not be in immediate danger of any kind of failure but the circuit presents the best opportunity to regain positions of those left on the calendar.

Handing Red Bull a larger advantage at this particular stage may be a risk, but it's less of a risk than at Brazil, the unknowns of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and most certainly at the final race in Abu Dhabi.

The most difficult of team games for Red Bull?

At a driver's home race, quite often their performance level jumps a notch or two as the roar of the crowd pushes them on to a higher level.

For Red Bull, this could present an unwanted issue this weekend.

Imagine this. With five laps remaining, Sergio Perez is in the lead and the crowd is going wild as he is in touching distance of becoming the first Mexican to win his home race. However, Verstappen is second.

Regardless of Hamilton's position at that time, would Red Bull dare order the positions to be reversed? Surely the crowd response would be venomous.

But what would be greater, the pain of the moment, or the ignominy of losing the championship by one point through not reversing the positions?

We would not wish to be in the position of having to make that call should it arise.

Ferrari to overtake McLaren

Since introducing an upgraded power unit, Ferrari now appears to have the upper hand over McLaren in the fight for third.

Although McLaren still holds the advantage, a position largely due to the team's one-two at the Italian Grand Prix, the gap is now just three and a half points.

The Scuderia enjoyed a strong performance advantage in Texas and were it not for a dubious pit stop for Carlos Sainz, would have passed McLaren in the standings.

Although the swing in performance does appear to be at least partially circuit-specific, it could be Ferrari now holds the advantage to the end of the season.

An F1 party to negate cancellations

When the Mexican GP rejoined the calendar, it redefined the word 'party' as the baseball stadium converted for F1 use became reminiscent of a nightclub after the chequered flag fell.

Of course, these scenes will be magnified greatly should Perez take home the winner's trophy.

The podium is up there with the best in F1, with the winning car raised to be doused in champagne alongside the top three drivers as a sea of passionate fans clamour to get the best view of their heroes.

Mexico, we've missed you. Welcome back!