The Mercedes F1 data that shows Lewis Hamilton might have left too soon

Lewis Hamilton

The Mercedes data that shows Lewis Hamilton might have left too soon

Did Hamilton make the wrong decision?

Sheona Mountford F1 Journalist

Motorsport journalist working in F1 since 2024.

Wednesday 4 February 2026 20:54

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The data from Mercedes looks good so far. So, has F1 champion Lewis Hamilton made the wrong decision?

Thus far, Mercedes' testing mileage (500 laps and 2,328km) has set an intimidating benchmark ahead of pre-season testing in Bahrain.

In Barcelona, trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin claimed that, if everything goes to plan, the final test in Bahrain could see them undergo race and qualifying prep. This is frighteningly advanced for a new ruleset, and considering the likes of Williams are yet to undergo any meaningful testing yet.

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Everything is pointing towards Mercedes being the team to beat in 2026, although George Russell remains wary of their rivals. Speaking at the Mercedes car launch, he said: "The numbers we're seeing from the aero on the car match what we see back on the simulator. How the car is handling is matching how it feels on the simulator. This is something we've not really experienced since 2021 as a team.

"We're sort of ticking the boxes on everything that we want to tick but we can't discount our rivals. As I said there was a lot of talk around the Red Bull power unit not being up to standard year one. From what we've seen so far they've definitely delivered.

"Ferrari power unit looks reliable, they did lots of laps not far behind us over the course of the test, and from a power unit side Haas did loads of laps as well with the Ferrari engine.

"So the truth is there could be a good fight on our hands, but we're satisfied with what we've experienced so far."

Should Hamilton have remained at Mercedes?

If Mercedes do become a world championship winning team in 2026, then it begs the question: Was Lewis Hamilton's exit too hasty?

Taking off the snooty hat of hindsight for a second, we have to look at where Lewis Hamilton was at the start of 2024. Following a crushing title defeat in 2021, Hamilton hadn't achieved a single race win in the ground effect era and at the age of 39, was certainly at a crossroads in his career.

Time wasn't on his side to wait for Mercedes to improve (which, incidentally, they didn't in the past two years, at least enough to win a championship).

Coupled with a longing for Ferrari never realised, it makes complete sense Hamilton moved teams when he did. His disastrous 2025 season could not have been foreseen, and the first year at a new team was always going to be the most difficult.

There is still no certainty Mercedes will be dominant in 2026, particularly as development will be key in the first year of the new regulations. But, will Hamilton regret his switch if Mercedes are competitive? The seven-time champion shouldn't even consider the question. Hamilton cannot afford to think in hypotheticals, particularly if he is to end his Ferrari career on a high.