F1 PREDICTION: Could Ferrari hold off Red Bull in Azerbaijan? Race pace and strategies analysed

The Sprint race gave us all a trailer of what’s to come today in the Grand Prix.

A spicy battle between Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen is expected with Charles Leclerc having an outside chance as the Azerbaijan GP always tends to throw some surprises during the race due to the twisty nature of the track and the cooling demands on the brakes.

Let us use some data points from the sprint to try and predict the race order and the potential strategies that can be used in the race.

Potential Race Pace

The chart below gives the normal distribution of lap times for the top 10 drivers from the sprint.

We can observe that Perez showed the true potential of the Red Bull, consistently lapping below 1.44 min, while Verstappen struggled with a damaged car because of his contact with George Russell on the first lap.

Leclerc being pushed in the entire sprint race, first by Perez and then by Verstappen resulted in burning his tyres quickly as can be seen via the larger lap time distribution. Meanwhile, Carlos Sainz showed the true pace of the Ferrari which is about 0.5-0.75 sec slower than the Red Bulls in race trim.

The race pace between the Ferrari and Mercedes is really close along with their top speeds. This would mean that track position and thus strategy would be extremely crucial.

The Aston Martins who have been impressive in the first 3 races look slightly on the back foot being about 0.2-0.3 sec slower than Ferrari and Mercedes but had lower tyre degradation. Fernando Alonso’s racecraft could make the difference if the Azerbaijan GP is an action-filled one.

Race Strategies

The sprint race weekend throws in new variables in how teams use their tyres as they have to compulsorily use a specific compound during specific events.

This means teams have different tyres remaining for the race which can spice things up, especially with a safety car or red flag.

One aspect that surprised the teams was the tyre deg on the mediums which was higher than expected, which means some teams might have to manage the pace before switching onto the Hard compound.

In terms of strategy, data shows that a one-stopper MED-HARD should be the quickest strategy. Starting on the Medium before stopping for the Hard between laps 14 and 19.

A SOFT-HARD strategy looked possible, but the high tyre degradation on the Soft tyres during the sprint race for certain drivers who were brave threw that off the table, especially with temperatures expected to be higher than the sprint on Sunday.

Surprises for the weekend

Alpine started the race weekend being optimistic with a raft of new upgrades on the car, however, this weekend has been one to forget for them.

Gasly suffered a hydraulic issue in the first practice and then crashed in qualifying. Further exhaust problems took him out of the Sprint Shootout and then Esteban Ocon’s car was taken out of parc ferme, forcing him to start from the pit lane. Do the Alpines have the pace to fight back into the points from the back of the grid?

“Baku Syndrome” is what the teams refer to the chaotic nature of the Azerbaijan race weekend. We’ve had it all - red flags, teammates colliding, two-lap restarts, surprise podiums and late retirements. There’s never been a repeat winner at Baku.

READ MORE: F1 ANALYSIS: Have Azerbaijan GP upgrades made Red Bull and Mercedes faster?