F1 title scenarios: How Norris, Verstappen or Piastri can become world champion

F1 will crown its 2025 world drivers’ champion at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix today (Sunday December 7) - we just don’t know yet who it will be.

Red Bull’s reigning four-time champion Max Verstappen and McLaren pair Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are all in the race to claim the title in a gripping climax to the season.

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Norris is in the driving seat with a 12-point lead in the standings heading into the decider, with Verstappen next in the standings after an incredible fightback since the summer break. He once trailed by 104 points.

Piastri is now in third position some 16 points off the pace, having faltered following an incredible first half of the season. The latest standings are as follows:

So the stage is set and today will determine who is crowned champion, and we have all the various scenarios and permutations for you ahead of what will be a nailbiting afternoon in the desert.

We now know that Verstappen will be on pole position for Sunday's race, ahead of Norris and Piastri after he set the fastest time in a thrilling qualifying session on Saturday.

Abu Dhabi GP scenarios and permutations - the definitive guide

There are a ton of potential scenarios and permutations - this could get very complex and very complicated. But here are the simplest outcomes for each driver:

If Norris finishes third or better, he will definitely be crowned champion.

If Verstappen wins and Norris finishes fourth or lower, he will definitely be crowned champion.

If Piastri wins, Verstappen finishes second or lower and Norris finishes sixth or lower, he will be the champion.

But these of course are the simplest and least complex of the scenarios - check out our full table to show what the final standings would be based on all the potential finishing positions:

There you have it, all the detail you need, just refer to this and you will not go wrong.

What happens if it’s a tie?

Of course, we are not done yet, there is more potential complexity at play. What about the tie?

If two (or three) drivers are tied on points after Sunday’s race in Abu Dhabi, the champion will be decided on countback. So the driver with most wins, and if that is level the driver with most second places, and so on.

As it stands, heading into Sunday’s race these are the podium numbers for our contenders:

Norris: 7 wins, 8 second places, 2 third places.

Verstappen: 7 wins, 5 second places, 2 third places.

Piastri: 7 wins, 4 second places, 4 third places.

You can see how tight it is based on that win number - if any driver wins in Abu Dhabi and is then in a tie for first place in the overall standings, they win the title.

One other point to note - for countback purposes, Sprint Race results are NOT included.

What is the win probability and odds?

So Norris is a relatively heavy favourite after qualifying, but not totally prohibitive, with Verstappen second and Piastri third. Norris is 1/4 with Verstappen 3/1 and Piastri 20/1.

That means the implied probability of Norris becoming champion is 80%, while Verstappen has a 25% chance. Piastri meanwhile is the long shot at 4.8%.

Those odds and probabilities have swung a little more towards Verstappen after he claimed pole - he had been a 21.9% chance going into qualifying.

How do the points work in F1?

If you're new to watching the sport, this is how the F1 points system works for a Grand Prix - and crucially how they will work in Abu Dhabi on Sunday:

What about team orders?

Team orders could absolutely be in play here. Example, we are in the closing laps with Verstappen leading the race, Piastri in third and Norris fourth?

That result would mean Verstappen is the champion, so would 'papaya rules' finally go out of the window with Zak Brown calling Piastri on team radio to ask him to "let Lando through"?

It would create uproar, but it would be in no way surprising.

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix start time

The action at Yas Marina gets under way at 5pm local time. That is 1pm in the UK or 2pm CET.

If you are watching in the US, the magic time is 8am Eastern or 5am Pacific on the West Coast.

How to watch live

Sky Sports F1 has the call in the UK while it is ESPN broadcasting and streaming the race in the US. Channel 4 will also air free highlights of the race.

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