F1 title odds as Verstappen overhauls Piastri and Norris to complete astonishing turnaround

A few short weeks ago this was absolutely unthinkable, but we now have a new favourite to win the F1 world drivers' championship in 2025.

Four-time world champion Max Verstappen is surging, the McLaren pair of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris are faltering, and the result is boiling up to a thrilling three-way fight for the title.

It appears the championship will no longer be decided by an inter-team battle and Papaya rules - Verstappen is coming and he is absolutely for real.

Back on August 3 you would have been laughed at for suggesting the Dutchman had any shot of retaining his title again - he was struggling in the RB21 and rated at massive 50/1 odds to win it all for a fifth time.

Even after his home Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort on August 31, Max still trailed Piastri by a massive 104 points. But in the space of five races, that deficit has dropped to just 40.

The standings look like this heading to the Mexico City Grand Prix:

Verstappen continued his blistering run of form by claiming a maximum 33-point haul from last weekend’s action in Austin - winning both the Sprint Race and the US Grand Prix.

Events in Texas meant that the Red Bull great has now claimed as many points (119) as both McLaren drivers combined since the summer break. He is unquestionably back.

The McLarens meanwhile were once again struggling, notably when they crashed into each other to come out of the Sprint totally pointless. The impact on the odds to become champion was seismic.

Who is favourite to win the F1 drivers’ championship?

After being a distant 50/1 back in August, the oddsmakers now make Verstappen the favourite to become champion in 2025. That completes a quite astonishing turnaround.

As we sit here today (Saturday October 25), heading into Sunday's Mexico City Grand Prix, the latest odds now look like this:

50/1 Max Verstappen

The oddsmakers are clearly terrified of a rejuvenated Verstappen, that is clear. To put his renaissance into more context, those odds mean his probability of winning the title has gone from a virtually impossible 2% to 40%.

How does Verstappen become world champion?

While Max is now favourite to claim the title, he still has a ton of work to do with only five Grands Prix and two Sprint Races remaining.

If he wins every single race from now to the end of the race - improbable but not impossible - all he would need in terms of help from elsewhere is for Piastri to finish as low as third in one Grand Prix. It is almost in his own hands.

F1 2025 schedule - which races are left?

As we said, there are five Grands Prix and two Sprint races are remaining. So a maximum haul of 141 total points to be had for any one driver. The remaining schedule looks like this: