A new favourite emerges for the 2026 Formula 1 crown

The start of the race at turn one of 2024 Singapore Grand Prix — Photo: © IMAGO

A new favourite emerges for the 2026 Formula 1 crown

The off-season is full of intrigue and speculation, as this year's schedule could be one of the most explosive in living memory

Martin Macdonald

Wednesday 4 February 2026 03:25

The 2026 Formula 1 season is set to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. With significant regulatory changes and a shift in team dynamics, the pecking order is far from clear. While McLaren, the dominant force in recent years, are trending down, other teams are on the rise. This has caused sports betting sites to offer some surprising odds on who will come out on top.

The 2026 Formula 1 season is marked by an unprecedented level of uncertainty. This is largely due to the significant regulatory changes between the 2025 and 2026 seasons, considered among the biggest the sport has ever seen.

McLaren, which had a clear advantage from mid-2024 through the end of the 2025 season, was the obvious pick to win a third consecutive world championship in 2026.

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This was especially due to the hyped-up Mercedes power unit that was expected to give them an edge in the new era. However, as the 2026 season approaches, McLaren has slipped down the order.

Mercedes, with George Russell now the outright favourite at 2/1 and teammate Kimi Antonelli listed fifth at 9/1, have overtaken McLaren as the betting favourite to win the 2026 constructor championship. Mercedes, which finished second to McLaren in 2025 by a massive 364 points, are listed at 5/4 to win the 2026 title, ahead of McLaren at 3/1.

Despite McLaren's top driver, reigning world champion Lando Norris, being listed third on the driver side at 15/2, and his teammate Oscar Piastri at sitting at 12/1, the team's overall odds have slipped. Norris started the offseason as a co-favourite with Russell, but has fallen in the pecking order in the eyes of the bookies.

Red Bull's Max Verstappen is listed as the second favourite on the driver side at 7/2. However, with new teammate Isack Hadjar at 100/1, Red Bull is only listed at 10/1 to win their first constructor title since 2023.

Red Bull finished third in the standings in 2024, making Verstappen the first driver for a team not inside the top two to win the world championship since 1983. They finished third again in 2025, even with Verstappen missing out on what would have been a fifth consecutive world title by only two points after trailing by 104 just a few months prior.

The significant changes in the odds come amid optimism in both the Mercedes and Red Bull garages, while McLaren are rumoured to no longer have the major advantage over the rest of the grid they had boasted since the middle of the 2024 season.

This shift in dynamics is a testament to the unpredictable nature of the sport and the impact of regulatory changes. As the 2026 season approaches, F1 fans and bettors alike will be watching closely to see how these changes play out on the track.