Hamilton v Vettel: Who is favourite at the remaining races in 2018?

A classic midseason surge has put Lewis Hamilton in sight of a fifth world drivers' title, with Sebastian Vettel left counting the cost of on-track errors and strategy blunders from Ferrari. The German must make up a 40-point deficit in the remaining six grands prix of the year – what clues can we take from their efforts at the tracks in the past?

RUSSIAN GRAND PRIX - Sochi

HAM: 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th

VET: 8th, 2nd, DNF, 2nd

Mercedes have dominated at Sochi since its 2014 debut on the Formula 1 calendar. The Silver Arrows have delivered superbly, aided by Hamilton's brilliant driving, in recent weeks, but if Vettel can hook everything up in qualifying, Ferrari's extra burst of pace could prove crucial at a track notoriously tough to pass on, as it has for Mercedes in recent years.

JAPANESE GRAND PRIX - Suzuka

HAM: 1st (Fuji), 12th (Fuji), 3rd, 5th, 5th, 5th, DNF, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st

VET: DNF (Fuji), 6th (Fuji), 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, DNF

When equipped with the dominant car in F1, both men have impressed at Suzuka. Now, with their machinery more equally matched, this race will be fascinating as it gives us a chance to examine the true talent of each man at the wheel. A spark plug issue here last year contributed to Vettel's slide out of title contention – he needs so much better this time around.

UNITED STATES GRAND PRIX - Austin

HAM: 1st (Indianapolis), 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st

VET: 8th (Indianapolis), 2nd, 1st, 7th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd

Vettel says he must win all six remaining races if he is to be crowned champion, but this one may well be his toughest. Hamilton has won all but one of the races at the Circuit of the Americas since its 2012 debut on the calendar, although it was Vettel on the top step of the podium on the occasion he did not win.

MEXICAN GRAND PRIX – Mexico City

HAM: 2nd, 1st, 9th

VET: DNF, 5th, 4th

Although last year's result was Hamilton's worse at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, it was likely his favourite of the three, given he won his fourth drivers' crown. Vettel is yet to enjoy a fully clean race weekend at this track, but the twisting track could give Ferrari a slight advantage, providing Vettel remains in contention by this point.

BRAZILIAN GRAND PRIX - Interlagos

HAM: 7th, 5th, 3rd, 4th, DNF, DNF, 9th, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 4th

VET: DNF, 4th, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 6th, 1st, 5th, 3rd, 5th, 1st

Both men have been crowned champion at the famous Sao Paulo circuit in the past, each time with a desperate salvage job – Hamilton's famous last-lap triumph in 2008 and Vettel's miraculous drive to sixth with half of his Red Bull's bodywork missing in 2012. Unless Vettel can close the gap, this could well be the scene of another Hamilton coronation.

ABU DHABI GRAND PRIX – Yas Marina

HAM: DNF, 2nd, 1st, DNF, 7th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd

VET: 1st, 1st, DNF, 3rd, 1st, 8th, 4th, 3rd, 3rd

Again, both Hamilton and Vettel have been crowned in what has become F1's traditional season-ender, although Vettel's 2010 triumph was certainly more nail-biting than Hamilton's cruise to glory in 2014. Having dominated the race's early years, Vettel's form here has tailed off at Ferrari – although Mercedes' late-season dominance in the hybrid era has played a part.