Hold your horses Lewis Hamilton! Everything could change in Bahrain

Yes, Lewis Hamilton was the unofficial 'quickest' at the Barcelona shakedown. Yes, it's nice to see the F1 champion smiling again. But, everything could change in Bahrain next week.

The Barcelona shakedown was primarily concerned with mileage, reliability and understanding the systems of the new 2026 cars. It wasn't about pure pace or testing setups, that's all to come in Bahrain.

So, while Hamilton's time of 1:16.348 was certainly headline grabbing and it's great to hear statements about a 'winning mentality', don't let this lull you into security. We've been here before at the start of a season, and it did not end well...

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news (the modus operandi of the modern media), but Barcelona meant diddly squat. Here's why.

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Why Barcelona means nothing and Bahrain is more representative

Mercedes were on top in Barcelona. Not just in the times but crucially with their mileage, accumulating 500 laps across their three days of testing. Which is what really matters and what has impressed the F1 community in the past few weeks.

Let's not get too excited though! Mileage is one aspect, but Mercedes haven't even trialled different set-ups yet! Trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin said to F1 after the shakedown: "Bahrain, we’re going to move more to set-up exploration and trying to work out how you get the car in the right window. Whilst you can do set-up here [Barcelona], it’s so cold it’s not really relevant to any race track."

Which raises another important point, the conditions in Barcelona were far too cold to be representative. Sure, we'd resigned ourselves that none of the times meant anything anyway, but temperature could also influence reliability.

There are still major question marks over how teams will fare in representative conditions, as the Sakhir desert will present an entirely different climate where temperatures will reach highs of 30 degrees Celsius next week!

The Barcelona shakedown took place in the cold (by their standards) Spanish winter with temperatures lingering in the low teens. Just a little bit different to the rest of the season then...

All of this talk about sound reliability and mileage may be redundant come Bahrain. Will teams be able to run as reliably in higher temperatures? Will the heat cause problems for the brand new power units?

Nevertheless, even though they didn't top the timesheets in Barcelona, Mercedes are advanced in their pre-season preparations. Shovlin continued: "Bahrain is going to be a much better place to check that the car runs well at temperature, both in terms of the chassis performance side, but just if the systems are running effectively.

"That final Bahrain [test, 18-20] will hopefully just be more about the race prep, preparing for qualifying, preparing for the race and all the situations that that throws up."

The fact that Mercedes are already planning race and qualifying prep for Bahrain is an insane statement on their progress (bare in mind Williams haven't even taken part in an official test yet).

If Ferrari don't find themselves in a similar position as Mercedes in Bahrain, then all the hype from Barcelona will be for naught. Just as easily as they clocked up mileage in Barcelona, they could suddenly find themselves on the back foot in a week's time.

Barcelona was just the amuse bouche. Bahrain on the other hand, will give us our first proper flavour of the 2026 cars. Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari face a key test in Sakhir, that they must pass before we can even allow a modicum of hope over their chances this year.

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