How Red Bull could LOSE their 100% win record this season

With seven races behind us and 15 still to go, Red Bull are still holding on to the hope of becoming the first constructor to hold a 100% win rate throughout an entire F1 season.

While many hoped that the field would bunch up after a one-sided end to the 2022 season, Red Bull came out punching when the curtain raised on the 2023 season in Bahrain.

Thanks to the incredible work of Adrian Newey and the rest of the Red Bull design team, the RB19 looks to be one of the most dominant cars in F1 history.

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On track, there is nothing teams can currently do to stop the two Red Bull cars from disappearing into the distance. They win from pole position, and they win from further back.

The RB19 seemingly has no clear weaknesses, and fans are fearful that the season could end with Red Bull taking victory in all 22 rounds of the season.

However, while a clean sweep feels inevitable after seven grands prix, there are many ways in which Red Bull could drop the baton in the upcoming 15 races.

The threat from below

The gap between Red Bull and their nearest competitors may still be notable, but it is clear from the Spanish Grand Prix that Mercedes have cut the gap to the championship leaders significantly.

Red Bull and Mercedes, who were major rivals during the blockbuster 2021 championship fight, were separated by over 50 seconds as the season opener in Bahrain, but that gap was only 24 seconds in Barcelona.

The rate of improvement for Mercedes, however, is unlikely to remain so substantial. While Red Bull's gains are likely to be small in proportion, the Milton Keynes-based team will still be bringing upgrades throughout 2023.

F1's cost-cap measures will also play a role in Mercedes' ability to cut the gap from Red Bull. Such a drastic concept overhaul as Mercedes' will not have come without strain on their finances.

With Ferrari floundering in the Barcelona sun, Aston Martin are the only other logical contenders who could hunt down Red Bull, but even they looked to have taken a step backwards at the Spanish Grand Prix.

Lawrence Stroll's ambitions for the team have been clearly stated and the Canadian is more than happy to provide investment, but they too could be looking at 2024 as a better development priority, given the scale of Red Bull's advantage.

Circuit-specific weaknesses

While the RB19 doesn't currently appear to have any weaknesses come race day, the two qualifying sessions in Baku did show that there are vulnerabilities when it comes to one-lap setups.

Unfortunately for the rest of the grid, Monaco, which is the major outlier on the calendar given the immense difficulty of overtaking, has already come and gone with a Red Bull triumph to match.

Barcelona has historically been a strong track for Mercedes, and the Silver Arrows will have set their sights on other races they contend in, should upgrade packages bring them closer to Red Bull.

The main standout for Mercedes is the Brazilian Grand Prix in November. George Russell claimed victory in both the sprint race and the grand prix at Interlagos in 2022, marking the team's only victory of the season.

Despite languishing behind Red Bull for most of 2022, Mercedes were the fastest team on merit in Sao Paulo, and the track characteristics are likely to suit the W14 again this time around.

The lap-one lottery could also play a role in ending Red Bull's 100% win rate. Zandvoort, Spa and the Hungaroring all have sharp hairpins as their first corners which can be conducive to lap one incidents.

We witnessed this in 2021 when Valtteri Bottas and Lance Stroll went bowling at turn one in the wet, misjudging their braking points and taking several frontrunners out of the race.

It doesn't matter how dominant the RB19 is on paper, if both cars are damaged or left at the back of the running order due to an incident then it will be extremely tough to recover.

Reliability

Unfortunately for the rest of the grid, it looks as though only actions out of Red Bull's hands will hand a victory to one of the sport's other nine constructors.

On-track collisions aren't the only potential way this could occur, though. It is much more likely that a mechanical failure will put an end to Red Bull's 100% record at some point in the 2023 season.

While the RB19 may look bulletproof from a competitive standpoint, even the most dominant cars in modern F1 history have suffered from reliability issues every so often.

It was reliability issues that cost Verstappen so many points at the start of the 2022 season, and with Red Bull now fully integrated into their own power unit operation, mistakes will inevitably be made.

While mechanical retirements for Red Bull are almost certainly inevitable this season, both cars suffering mechanical issues in the same race is unlikely, so the likes of Mercedes, Aston Martin and Ferrari will need to be sharp to capitalise.

What makes the question of Red Bull's perfect season so hard to answer with certainty is the same thing that makes F1 so incredible - unpredictability.

If races were won on paper then yes, Red Bull would walk away with 22 wins from a possible 22 this season, but they're not, and even the most dominant cars in F1 history have had their off days.

Mechanical issues, the development race, poor strategy calls or an ill-timed safety car or red flag could potentially cost Red Bull victories before the season comes to a close in Abu Dhabi.

READ MORE: Red Bull F1 chief believes they could win EVERY race in 2023

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