Ricciardo at a crossroads ahead of pivotal 2018 campaign

About to start his fifth season as a Red Bull driver, Daniel Ricciardo is entering the most pivotal period of his Formula 1 career. At 28-years-old, he's arguably in his prime as a racer, but he enters 2018 standing at a crossroads.

Since his promotion from Toro Rosso in 2014, Ricciardo has outscored his team-mate every season bar a reliability-hit 2015, even beating four-time champion Sebastian Vettel in what was widely regarded as 'his' team. Ricciardo's stock has never been higher.

Now on the eve of the 2018 season, Ricciardo arrives in Melbourne aiming to become the first Australian to win the home Grand Prix, and he believes he has his best chance to date of doing so. "We are certainly more ready than we were last year, and probably every year before that since I've been with the team," he said during pre-season testing in Barcelona.

With Red Bull having extended Max Verstappen's contract through to the end of 2020, Ricciardo will see the early season races as opportunities to strengthen his own hand in upcoming negotiations - but will those talks be with Red Bull, or elsewhere?

DECISIONS, DECISIONS

Ricciardo faces a make-or-break choice that may ultimately determine whether he finishes his career as a world champion or not.

The options are clear: stay put, take the fight to Verstappen and hope that Red Bull can get on par with Mercedes, or take the plunge, jump ship, and go head-to-head against either Vettel (again) or Lewis Hamilton on their turf.

Despite his glowing consistency in recent years, the emergence of Verstappen has thrown a spanner into the works for Ricciardo. Mature and intelligent race-craft has helped him pick up five wins, but there's a feeling that Verstappen's long-term potential could be even greater, and Red Bull's motorsport advisor Dr Helmut Marko appears to agree.

According to Verstappen himself, Marko sees the young Dutchman as his "special project". Verstappen recently told Germany's Auto Bild: "He wants to repeat the Vettel story and win world championships."

Red Bull say they want to retain Ricciardo but Marko's alleged preference for building the team around Verstappen and owner Dietrich Mateschitz suggesting he would be allowed to seek a new challenge may convince Ricciardo that his future lies elsewhere. But where would he go?

There are two obvious options, Mercedes and Ferrari. Both have a driver out of contract at the end of 2018 in Valtteri Bottas and Kimi Raikkonen - discounting Hamilton, who will sign a new Mercedes deal imminently.

THE COMPETITION

So what must Ricciardo do to convince Messrs Wolff and Arrivabene that he's the right fit for their teams? When comparing Ricciardo to the two drivers most likely to vacate their seats for him, it's easy to make a case for the Australian being an upgrade - but in F1, it's never quite that simple, is it?

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Bottas proved to be an adequate number two during his first season with the Silver Arrows and, on his day, is capable of giving Hamilton a run for his money.

He faded badly, though, during the middle part of last season, just as Hamilton began to routinely drive around the Mercedes W08's diva-like tendencies. By comparison, Bottas got lost making setup changes and wound up around a half a second off Hamilton's pace for a few races.

In the red corner, Raikkonen has been clinging on to his Ferrari seat for several years now, despite being comprehensively outscored during his four seasons back with the team. It's been 95 races since Raikkonen last tasted victory, and he has only finished ahead of Vettel nine times out of 43 races where both drivers were classified.

It's hard to imagine Ricciardo, 10 years Raikkonen's junior, having equally as poor a record in the same machinery.

STICK OR TWIST?

Both Hamilton and Vettel were asked during Thursday's press conference about the prospect of partnering with Ricciardo in future.

Hamilton advised Ricciardo not to "alienate" his current employers, adding: "I think Red Bull can have a fighting chance of winning the championship, and opinion of where you want to go, if it's not currently where he is, may shift."

Vettel, on the other hand, suggested Ricciardo would be welcome at Ferrari, despite being beaten when the pair were team-mates at Red Bull in 2014. "I'm sure he will find a seat," Vettel said. "I think we get along so I wouldn't mind if we get together again in the future but I don't know what his plan is. I think he has a couple of options and I don't think he needs to rush."

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In reality, Ricciardo enjoys a good relationship with both, so it's easy to imagine him slotting in next to either should he decide to move. Assuming both teams are interested in his services, his decision is likely to come down to two things: where does he see himself fitting in and, more importantly, where does he see himself winning?

With Italian heritage, a move to Ferrari would be enticing for Ricciardo, but would the team risk upsetting the harmonious team dynamic it currently has? Should Raikkonen perform well this year, or their young protege Charles Leclerc underperform at Sauber, it's possible that Ferrari may prefer the status quo and re-sign Raikkonen for a sixth straight season.

After all, Ferrari have a history of focusing their efforts on one driver. Former Scuderia president Luca di Montezemolo once spoke of not wanting "two roosters in the same henhouse" and Ferrari may see hiring Ricciardo as going against that philosophy.

Mercedes, on the other hand, have previously employed two 'number-one' drivers before. While we all know how that ended, it's unlikely Ricciardo would unsettle Hamilton in the same way Nico Rosberg did.

In terms of performance, Mercedes is the clear and obvious choice for Riccardo - they've been the leading team for each of the past four years. But this is firmly Hamilton's team now, and with Michael Schumacher's records in sight, he may see the signing of Ricciardo as an unwanted distraction.

As always, timing is key in F1. Honda's apparent progress with Toro Rosso means there's a strong likelihood that Red Bull will switch to Japanese power for 2019. Could theirs be the power unit to have next season?

Ricciardo certainly has some tough decisions to make, and sometimes it's just about being in the right place at the right time.