Raikkonen or Leclerc? Where will Alonso go? - Predicting the 2019 F1 grid

With no races to occupy the minds of Formula 1 drivers, officials and fans over the next three weeks, thoughts naturally turn to other matters and the make-up of the grid the following year is never far away from the forefront. It looks like 2019 could see a sizable shake-up, so Rob Watts analyses where the movers and shakers on the merry-go-round will land.

THE MAIN PLAYERS

KIMI RAIKKONEN

Now 38, Raikkonen has been in good form this season, and his run of five podium finishes leading into the summer shutdown is his best since his title-winning season 11 years ago. While each new contract extension in recent years has been met with surprise, it seemed as recently as a few races ago that the Finn's current deal might just be his last.

The strong rumour was that Ferrari's young protege Charles Leclerc would earn promotion to the senior team in his place. But as quickly as those rumours gathered pace, they have now slowed.

In light of the recent tragic death of Ferrari CEO Sergio Marchionne, it's thought that the team may now opt for the stability offered by retaining Raikkonen and give Leclerc another season to prepare for what is one of the most high-pressured seats on the F1 grid.

Probable: Ferrari
Possible: Sauber, McLaren or retirement

FERNANDO ALONSO

Alonso turned 37 on race day in Budapest but is showing few signs of slowing down as he approaches the end of his F1 career. Despite his age, the enigmatic Spaniard still commands an enormous salary and McLaren appear to have built much of their team around him in recent seasons, even allowing him to skip the Monaco Grand Prix to compete in the Indianapolis 500.

He's realistic to know that a third F1 drivers' title is now unlikely, especially given Zak Brown's admission that it could take "two to 10 years" for McLaren to return to the front, but Alonso has not given up on further enhancing his reputation as one of the sport's greats.

The question now is: Does he jump ship full-time to America in an attempt to add the Indy 500 to his Le Mans victory this year, or does he still have unfinished business in F1? The smart money would be on the former as Alonso's enjoyment of F1 appears to be waning in favour of winning the 'Triple Crown'.

Probable: IndyCar
Possible: McLaren

SERGIO PEREZ

The Mexican took a lot of flak initially when it emerged that he had been the one to instigate legal proceedings against Force India, but he's earned a lot of respect since for revealing that he did so in order to save the team and their 400+ employees.

Should the team's financial rescue go to plan, Perez is likely to extend his five-year stay, although he's unlikely to be short of offers should he opt to move elsewhere, given his impressive results in recent seasons.

Haas may opt to find a safer pair of hands should they run out of patience with Romain Grosjean, while Perez's former team Sauber appear to be a more attractive option now with their close ties to Ferrari.

Probable: Force India
Possible: Haas, Sauber, McLaren

ESTEBAN OCON

This one looks to be done and dusted, and we should see Ocon partnering Nico Hulkenberg at Renault next season.

Ocon has earned praise for his performances since initially joining the Manor team part way through 2016, before moving to partner Perez at Force India last season. He's still technically a Mercedes junior driver, but Toto Wolff appears happy for Ocon to continue his development with a rival manufacturer team where he'll likely learn a little more about the Frenchman's long-term potential.

Probable: Renault (soon to be confirmed)
Possible: Force India

CARLOS SAINZ JR

After a promising start to his F1 career, Sainz has reached a crossroads as he plots his next move. The belief is that Sainz's Red Bull contract will expire in September if a seat at the top team doesn't become available and a return to Toro Rosso is unlikely to interest him.

With none of the other top teams likely to have a vacancy anytime soon, and Renault seemingly opting for a Hulkenberg / Ocon combination, it leaves Sainz looking for a drive.

There's little danger of him slipping off the grid, however, as he's shown more than enough promise to earn a move elsewhere. A move to McLaren, with or without Alonso, seems to be the most likely.

Probable: McLaren
Possible: Toro Rosso, Haas, Sauber

CHARLES LECLERC

The young Monegasque driver has looked the real deal so far this year, and it appears to be only a matter of time before he gets his dream drive with Ferrari. But with the likelihood of that happening for 2019 now diminishing, Leclerc's short-term future appears to be with one of two teams.

Sauber will undoubtedly want to keep him, but now Haas, who also use Ferrari power units, appear to be in the hunt for his signature.

While Sauber have improved considerably this season, Haas have established themselves as strong upper-midfield competitors and Ferrari may opt to place him there to further his development.

Probable: Haas
Possible: Sauber, Ferrari

LANCE STROLL

With the extent of Force India's financial troubles being revealed last week, Stroll's father Lawrence is rumoured to have offered to invest in the team in exchange for a race drive for son Lance as frustrations grow over Williams' slide down the grid.

Ocon is believed to have signed for Renault, which would open up a vacant seat for Stroll. And Force India are unlikely to turn away potential investors, having entered administration.

If all things come together as expected, Stroll is likely to be a Force India driver next year, and we'll finally discover the extent of his talents should he line up in a competitive car alongside a seasoned pro like Perez.

Probable: Force India
Possible: Williams

UNDER PRESSURE

ROMAIN GROSJEAN

While his form has picked up, team boss Gunther Steiner described Grosjean's repeated mistakes in the early rounds as "unacceptable". Given he is a 32-year-old in his ninth F1 season, it's easy to understand why Steiner's patience has been tested.

With Haas embroiled in a close midfield battle with Renault, Force India and McLaren, Grosjean must cut out the mistakes if he is to remain on the grid next year. However, the potential availability of other drivers such as Leclerc and Perez may leave the Frenchman seeking alternative employment.

Possible: Haas, Sauber, Williams

STOFFEL VANDOORNE

Alonso is a fearsome teammate, but Vandoorne has been outqualified in all 12 races this year and outscored by 32 points. It's fair to expect better from a GP2 champion.

It's not known whether Alonso will stick around for 2019 or head to the States, but either way, Vandoorne cannot be certain of remaining with McLaren unless his form dramatically improves after the summer break. Williams and Sauber could be potential options, but he'll need to start picking up results to attract their interest.

Possible: McLaren, Sauber, Williams

THE NEWCOMERS

LANDO NORRIS

Several eye-catching drives in F2 have attracted the attention of the F1 grid but he remains contracted to McLaren. Norris could yet find himself offered to Toro Rosso in an attempt to secure the early release of James Key.

GEORGE RUSSELL

Like Norris, has also impressed in F2 this year and has the added advantage of being a Mercedes junior. A seat at Williams could open up if Stroll heads to Force India.