F1 aero expert reveals SHOCK team who are now as fast as Red Bull

Verstappen na overwinning in Canada — Photo: © LAT Images

Red Bull

F1 aero expert reveals SHOCK team who are now as fast as Red Bull

Red Bull looked like they cruised to victory in Canada with Max Verstappen but data shows their dominance may be ending

Shubham Sangodkar

Tuesday 27 June 2023 12:57 Updated: 13:48

The Canadian Grand Prix was the first race of the 2023 season where Max Verstappen with his RB19 did not cruise to victory - having dominated in his other wins.

Granted, the RB19 had its own set of issues trying to warm up the hard tyres but for the first time, all the top four teams had similar race pace.

Of particular interest were Ferrari who have struggled the entire season for consistent race pace across all set of tyre compounds.

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Helmut Marko, Red Bull’s key advisor, raised concerns about the Maranello outfit's speed on both the hard and medium tyre compounds during the Canadian Grand Prix, posing a potential threat to Verstappen’s dominance in the coming races.

Marko also expressed relief that both Ferrari cars started outside the top five, as their impressive performance during Friday practice had raised concerns within the Red Bull camp. Let us dive into the data to see what got Helmet Marko worried.

Ferrari look like they may be gaining ground on Red Bull after promising Canada pace

Marko’s Reference to Friday Race Simulations

Rumours suggest that the Maranello-based outfit in addition to its aero and suspension upgrades has found a breakthrough in the setup which transformed their race pace in Canada.

For the first time in the race pace simulations on Friday, Leclerc could match Verstappen. They were running similar fuel levels as his top speeds were in the same range and he did pretty much the same number of laps as Verstappen. It's a shame Leclerc didn’t qualify high enough to compete and push Max to the victory

Marko’s Reference to Race Data from Sunday

Lets us dive into the race pace data from Montreal. While from the first glance, we can immediately see from the plot below that Ferrari were slower than Red Bull, as with everything in F1, the devil is in the detail.

The first stint is misrepresentative, even though both the drivers started on medium compound tyres. Verstappen was enjoying the clear air while Leclerc was stuck behind Norris in a DRS train. So we can’t make inferences from this stint

For the second stint, Red Bull decided to pit Verstappen during the safety car while Leclerc did not. Now you have Red Bull with a new hard compound tyre while Ferrari had a used 12-lap old medium set. The average race pace delta between the two during the second stint was 0.5 seconds, which correcting for Ferrari’s tyre compound and the tyre age difference is almost equivalent pace.

For the third stint, Red Bull jumped on the medium compound tyres while Ferrari were on the hards. In the third stint, they both had a fresh set of tyres. The average race pace difference was 0.3 seconds. If you correct this stint for tyre compound time delta, you quickly realise that Ferrari were faster than Red Bull in the third stint.

Can Ferrari take the fight to Red Bull?

In my opinion, the Ferrari pace is not track-specific, however, it might have been temperature specific i.e. the colder temperatures in Canada definitely helped them in getting the best out of their tyres.

Hopefully, the rumours are correct and Ferrari have found some advances in their setup in order to make the car more competitive in the race.

Having said that, they are still one-two updates away from challenging Red Bull in the race and therefore the next couple of upgrades coming in Austria and Silverstone will be crucial for their fight to podiums and race wins.

Shubham Sangodkar is a former F1 Aerodynamicist with a Master's in Racing Car Design specialising in F1 Aerodynamics and F1 Data Analysis. He also posts aerodynamics content on his YouTube channel, which can be found here.