Dale Earnhardt Jr predicts 'rough' year for Connor Zilisch in NASCAR Cup Series

Connor Zilisch might be dominating in the NASCAR Xfinity Series this season, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. is predicting a rough first year in the Cup Series come 2026.

Zilisch is the most exciting prospect in NASCAR right now and is enjoying a breakthrough year in the Xfinity Series, where he has nine victories and 16 top-fives for JR Motorsports, the team owned by Earnhardt Jr.

The 19-year-old's performances have earned him a promotion to the Cup Series with Trackhouse Racing for 2026 and beyond, but Earnhardt Jr has suggested that the youngster will have to overcome some major obstacles in his first season.

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Earnhardt Jr. issues Zilisch prediction

Speaking on his Dale Jr Download podcast, Earnhardt Jr. said: "I think he'll be mid-pack a lot.

“Mostly that'll be due to two things. Trackhouse has this sort of hot and cold vibe, right? They run the [Coca Cola] 600, fastest car there. By far. And then disappear for a while."

With the help of Shane van Gisbergen at Trackhouse, Earnhardt Jr believes Zilisch could challenge for a win at a road course, but everywhere else, he has a lot to learn.

“I wouldn't be surprised if Conor battles for a win at a road course,” he added. “I think that's not stepping out of bounds, but everywhere else, he's learning an entirely new car.

“The short sidewall, the way this car feels, the way the car reacts and steps out, and all of those things will be very unique and different from what he's experienced in the Xfinity car.

"So he's got to build up this sort of data point or build up an entirely new notebook internally about what the car is capable of doing and how to push the car.”

Earnhardt Jr concluded: “You gotta be ready for that first year to be rough.”

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Top 20 would be a success

TJ Majors, who was on the episode of the Dale Jr Download, seemed to agree with Earnhardt Jr.'s assessment when issuing his own prediction on how Zilisch will fare in 2026.

“It's going to take time,” Majors said. “I would say if he finishes top 20 in points, that'd be a success.

“I think it's gonna be tough to go in there, and these guys have a lot of experience, and these cars are much harder to drive. They're harder in a different way.

"Everyone's so good, and these guys are so accurate with where they place the cars and how they manipulate air, and he's got to learn all that still.”

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