The Belgian Grand Prix tyre STRATEGIES available to F1 teams amid forecasted rain
The Belgian Grand Prix tyre STRATEGIES available to F1 teams amid forecasted rain
Max Verstappen's grid-penalty coupled with an uncertain weather forecast for the Belgian Grand Prix means that fans could be in for a few surprises when the lights go out at Spa.
The teams also ran extreme wet weather tyres followed by the intermediates during Saturday's sprint race, meaning that little is known over the performance of the slicks during a race itself.
With that in mind, here are a few of the options that are likely to be available to the teams and drivers on race day at Spa
What’s the quickest strategy?
If you have been following events this weekend since Friday, then you will know that there has been very little in the way of dry weather running.
In fact, there has been nothing in terms of high fuel analysis on slick tyres, meaning that the strategic choices have had to be worked out solely on simulations rather than hard data from this weekend.
The teams of course will have plenty of reliable data from previous races and the tyre compounds brought by Pirelli to Spa-Francorchamps are the same as they had here a year ago, so there is some pretty accurate history to work with.
And when all of that is taken into account, a two-stop strategy appears quickest at this point of the weekend.
Given what are likely to be low temperatures (more on that later) and relatively low grip conditions due to earlier wet weather, starting on the soft tyre would give the best performance in the opening laps.
And the soft should be able to hold on without high track temperatures for a long enough stint. Targeting a first stop between lap 10 and lap 15, drivers would then switch to the medium for a second stint and add another 15 laps before taking on another set of mediums for the run to the flag.
A more aggressive approach?
A slightly more aggressive version of the above strategy includes two stints on the soft compound, which could work depending on how a car is managing its tyres.
The first stint will be crucial in understanding what is possible, and a slightly longer run to the first pit stop will help later in the race, but is not essential.At the first stop the likely switch would be to mediums once again because it opens up flexibility.
Having completed the requirement to run two different tyre compounds during the race, if a driver can then reach lap 28 they can switch to softs once again – or if that proves too challenging with degradation then the medium remains an option from a few laps earlier.
The benefit of the final stint on softs is the increased performance over the medium to allow for overtaking, while it also guards against any light drizzle that might force a pit stop.
Options for the bottom half of the field
It’s not completely out of the question that one or two drivers might gamble on the hard compound at the start to run as long as possible. Should the rain arrive at some stage and everyone dives into the pits, they would gain position over anyone who had already stopped on softer compounds.
But the hard tyre is more likely to be difficult to manage if there is light rain compared to the soft or medium.
A one-stop strategy could well be seen but it is likely that starting on the medium tyre would be preferred to make this approach work. Although giving up some performance on the opening lap to soft-tyre runners, the medium opens up the ability to run as long as Lap 20 based on the data available, then allowing a switch to the hard compound to the end of the race.
Current weather predictions
This is always a challenging section to write because it really is tough to predict the weather at Spa-Francorchamps, where rain can appear out of almost nowhere.
Although rain was forecast at times, that was still the case on Saturday when some heavy showers developed near the circuit in the build-up to the sprint and caused a delay to the start.
The forecast currently suggests a 40 per cent chance of rain during the race, but there has been an increasing possibility of a shower at some stage, so the teams will be factoring that into their strategic calculations.
They at least have plenty of data on how both the full wet and intermediate tyre react this weekend given the wet running on Friday and Saturday, and now know the crossover times when they would need to switch to each tyre.
On low fuel, the crossover point between slick and intermediate is around the one-minute 53 second mark, while between intermediate and full wet it is closer to two-minutes and five seconds.
If it stays dry then lower temperatures than the rest of the weekend are expected, with a high of 17 degrees Celsius during the race that will make tyre warm-up that bit more challenging; but should help with overheating and degradation, again pushing drivers towards the softer compounds available.
Shubham Sangodkar is a former F1 Aerodynamicist with a Master's in Racing Car Design specialising in F1 Aerodynamics and F1 Data Analysis. He also posts aerodynamics content on his YouTube channel, which can be found here.
Related
Change your timezone:
Latest News
F1 News Today: Cullen gives 'RED' racing update as Newey deals serious Ferrari blow
- 43 minutes ago
Newey 'given new team starting date' as HUGE name linked with F1 return - GPFans F1 Recap
- Today 00:27
Angela Cullen makes 'rolling in red' post after Hamilton Ferrari move
- Yesterday 22:57
Norris reveals personal CHANGE after Miami win
- Yesterday 21:57
F1 star BLASTS rival over 'risky precedent'
- Yesterday 20:57
Newey calls for changes at Red Bull after exit announcement
- Yesterday 19:57
F1 Race Calendar 2024
-
GP BAHRAIN
29 Feb - 2 Mar
Max Verstappen
-
GP SAUDI ARABIA
7 - 9 Mar
Max Verstappen
-
GP AUSTRALIA
22 - 24 Mar
Carlos Sainz
-
GP JAPAN
5 - 7 Apr
Max Verstappen
-
GP CHINA
19 - 21 Apr
Max Verstappen
-
GP USA
3 - 5 May
Lando Norris
- GP ITALY 17 - 19 May
- GP MONACO 24 - 26 May
- GP CANADA 7 - 9 Jun
- GP SPAIN 21 - 23 Jun
- GP AUSTRIA 28 - 30 Jun
- GP GREAT BRITAIN 5 - 7 Jul
Related news
Legendary F1 circuit could be ditched due to spiralling costs
F1 confirms renewal of KEY race contract until 2025
Brundle names the ONE F1 driver operating well above expectations
F1 legend slams UNFAIR FIA proposal after 'deceiving fans'
F1 Standings
Drivers
- Oliver Bearman
- Charles Leclerc
- Carlos Sainz
- Lando Norris
- Oscar Piastri
- Pierre Gasly
- Esteban Ocon
- Sergio Pérez
- Max Verstappen
- Alexander Albon
- Logan Sargeant
- Lewis Hamilton
- George Russell
- Nico Hülkenberg
- Kevin Magnussen
- Fernando Alonso
- Lance Stroll
- Valtteri Bottas
- Zhou Guanyu
- Daniel Ricciardo
- Yuki Tsunoda
Races
- Gulf Air Grand Prix of Bahrain 2024
- Saudi Arabian Grand Prix 2024
- Grand Prix of Australia 2024
- MSC Cruises Grand Prix of Japan 2024
- Grand Prix of China 2024
- Miami Grand Prix 2024
- Gran Premio dell'Emilia Romagna 2024
- Grand Prix of Monaco 2024
- AWS Grand Prix du Canada 2024
- Gran Premio de España 2024
- Grand Prix of Austria 2024
- Grand Prix of Great Britain 2024
- Grand Prix of Hungary 2024
- Grand Prix of Belgium 2024
- Heineken Dutch Grand Prix 2024
- Grand Prix of Italy 2024
- Grand Prix of Azerbaijan 2024
- Grand Prix of Singapore 2024
- Grand Prix of the United States 2024
- Gran Premio de la Ciudad de Mexico 2024
- Grande Prêmio de São Paulo 2024
- Heineken Silver Las Vegas Grand Prix 2024
- Qatar Grand Prix 2024
- Grand Prix of Abu Dhabi 2024
About GPFans
GPFans is a multi-platform, multi-language brand dedicated to Formula One coverage. We bring you all the ins and outs of the sport, 24/7, everything from up-to-the-minute news and features to the latest viral stories and clips.We believe that a new generation of exciting, outspoken drivers will make F1 more popular than ever before, and we want to give our users access to as much of their heroes as possible, on and off the track. From Lewis Hamilton to Max Verstappen, Daniel Ricciardo to Sebastian Vettel, we provide in-depth analysis of every every Grand Prix in the season, from Australia to Abu Dhabi.
With Formula One under the new ownership of Liberty Media, how the sport is being covered is evolving, and GPFans will look to be at the heart of this progression into new media, as one of the fastest-growing sites covering the king of motorsports.
Follow us on your favorite social media channel
Corporate & Media
Innovatieweg 20C7007 CD, Doetinchem, Netherlands
+31645516860