NASCAR data says Joey Logano's Cup Series playoff hopes are probably cooked

Joey Logano may have advanced to the Round of 8 of the NASCAR playoffs but the data suggests that he is unlikely to make it into the final four in 2025.

The 35-year-old secured his tenth Round of 8 appearance after he beat Ross Chastain with a 20th place finish at Charlotte last time out.

However, Logano has a huge task ahead of him to progress further in the playoffs, ranking last of the active playoff drivers in the standings heading into Las Vegas this weekend.

Not only is the No. 22 driver ten points behind nearest competitor Chase Briscoe, but he is also 24 points below the cut line.

According to simulations from NASCAR’s forecast model, there is only a 26.2 per cent chance Logano will make it into the Championship 4 to fight for his fourth title.

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The stats behind Logano’s playoff chances

The only certain way Logano can progress to the next round is if he wins one of the next three races, but aside from that the odds increasingly decrease in his favour.

A trio of top 10 finishes provides a 72 per cent chance of advancing to the next round, and if this drops to two top 10 results his odds fall to 29 per cent.

Three finishes in the teens or better would only lead to a 35 per cent chance, and even if Logano avoids any truly bad finishes his chance of progression remains 18 per cent.

Luckily for Logano however, he approaches three tracks where he has been successful, winning four times at Martinsville and three at Talladega - although he hasn’t been victorious at the latter since 2018.

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