NASCAR Cup Series playoff standings and scenarios for Charlotte elimination race

The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs of 2025 reach a critical point in Charlotte this weekend, with the standings confirming life or death for those championship hopes.

The elimination race in the Round of 12 should be an absolute blockbuster with the Bank of America Roval 400 taking center stage (Sunday, 3pm ET, USA network).

There are only two drivers officially locked into the Round of 8 so far - Ryan Blaney for his win at New Hampshire and Chase Elliott for that stunning last-gasp victory at Kansas.

Of course any driver can guarantee progressing this weekend by winning at the Roval, but Kiwi road course bully Shane van Gisbergen is a massive barrier to those hopes. SvG is not even involved in the postseason any more, but he is a heavy favorite to take the win here.

Superstars Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin are both well placed to progress, but three-time champion Joey Logano (just 13 points above the cutline) is in major danger of an early exit.

NASCAR TODAY: Kyle Busch switch confirmed as Richard Childress Racing release retirement update

Latest NASCAR Cup Series standings

The standings after Kansas last weekend, and heading into Charlotte on Sunday, look like this:

Cup Series playoff scenarios at Charlotte

So as we said, any driver in the final 10 who is not already locked in and who wins here at Charlotte, would guarantee progressing to the Round of 8. But SvG’s ability to dominate on road courses would appear to make that something of a long shot.

Technically any of the four drivers below the cutline CAN still make it by improving their points tally, but with differing degrees of difficulty.

Ross Chastain (-13) still has a pretty neat chance of making it up into the final 8 (while Logano has similar prospects for falling below the cutline).

Austin Cindric (48 points below the cutline) basically needs a miracle to advance though, Logano would need to finish pretty much dead last and everyone else in the drop zone to finish about 15 places behind him, plus some stage points. Good luck with that, Austin.

The other two drivers in the bottom four are the 23XI pair of Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick. Both are up against it but Bubba in particular must still be fuming about that last-lap contact from his team co-owner Hamlin, which wrecked his victory hopes at Kansas. Thanks, ‘boss’.

READ MORE: Denny Hamlin refuses to apologize for Bubba Wallace controversy

Related