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Wild NASCAR odds highlight the insane reality of Cup Series blockbuster at Charlotte

Wild NASCAR odds highlight the insane reality of Cup Series blockbuster at Charlotte

Graham Shaw
A NASCAR car with the Cup Series logo displayed

If you took one look at the odds for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series playoff blockbuster at Charlotte's Roval, you’d be forgiven for asking: 'Why even race at all?'.

Twelve drivers will go into this huge elimination race still with dreams of progressing to the Round of 8, and keeping alive their hopes of claiming a championship at Phoenix in November.

But if you believe the oddsmakers, this is the ultimate one-horse race and the rest are just making up the numbers. All because of the course, a road course.

New Zealander Shane van Gisbergen is an absolute road course bully, dominating his way to four wins in 2025 - all by landslide margins. He also heads the overall driver stats for road and street courses since 2022 with an average finish position of 8.2.

SvG is a different proposition on ovals though, so much so that he exited the playoffs in the Round of 16 despite that stellar regular season.

So there we have it, a guy who is not even in the playoffs is the heaviest favorite imaginable in a race where some of those guys below the cutline pretty much HAVE TO WIN to stay alive. Good luck with that…

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NASCAR Odds for Cup Series at Charlotte

SvG is currently trading at pretty incredible odds for the rumble at the Roval on Sunday afternoon (3pm ET, USA network).

Oddsmakers have the 36-year-old ace at -105 - for the casuals out there that means to win a dollar you’d have to bet $1.05 (you get your stake back as well, of course). Absolutely wild.

This shows just how dominant van Gisbergen is on road courses - remember most Cup Series races are pretty open affairs when it comes to the odds. A ton of drivers can win, and the oddsmakers act accordingly. But not here…

At the other end of the spectrum we have the great Denny Hamlin - a man who is way above the cutline and looking very good for a spot in the Round of 8. A man with 59 Cup Series wins and a brilliantly fast No. 11 Toyota at his disposal. Yet he is currently +6000 (bet a dollar to win 60). Absolutely mad gulf between him and the red-hot favorite.

The drivers with the best chance of shocking SvG come Sunday? That would be 2021 Cup Series king Kyle Larson (+850), Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Christopher Bell (+1000) and William Byron (+1000).

The big name in most danger of elimination is three-time Cup Series champion Joey Logano, just 13 points above the cutline heading to the Roval. He is currently trading at odds of +3500. Not too encouraging.

The full and latest odds for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 are as follows:

  • -105 Shane van Gisbergen
  • +850 Kyle Larson
  • +1000 Christopher Bell
  • +1000 William Byron
  • +1200 Tyler Reddick
  • +1500 Chase Elliott
  • +1600 A.J. Allmendinger
  • +2000 Chase Briscoe
  • +2000 Chris Buescher
  • +2200 Ross Chastain
  • +2500 Ty Gibbs
  • +2800 Kyle Busch
  • +3000 Michael McDowell
  • +3000 Alex Bowman
  • +3500 Ryan Blaney
  • +3500 Joey Logano
  • +4500 Austin Cindric
  • +5000 Daniel Suarez
  • +5500 Carson Hocevar
  • +6000 Denny Hamlin
  • +6500 Ryan Preece
  • +8000 Bubba Wallace
  • +9000 Brad Keselowski
  • +13000 John Hunter Nemechek

    The rest of the field are all +20000 or bigger. So no hope according to those oddsmakers. (All odds are correct at 0500 ET, Friday October 3).

    As ever, despite what those figures tell you (like SvG is a lock) they still do have to race. We’ll find out who is right on Sunday afternoon. Get the popcorn, NASCAR fans.

    READ MORE: Denny Hamlin refuses to apologize for Bubba Wallace controversy

    Related

    NASCAR NASCAR Cup Series Denny Hamlin Joey Logano Shane van Gisbergen
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